by tptelly
I am wondering if someone can lay out the bullish case and/or dispute my current and personal view of the current market conditions as I see it. Not looking to push my opinions, rather to let me know am I being too bearish.
This is the bear case as I see it.
\- Baby boomer retirement and the resulting pension crisis and levels of debt must result in money printing.
\- Unknown effects of quantitative tightening; whereas quantitative easing resulted in the rise of asset prices, tightening might result in the opposite. Tens of billions of dollars every month destroyed by the FED.
\- FED hiking risk-free rate.
\- Trade tensions.
\- Peak(?) economic growth.
\- Ill-timed fiscal stimulus, during the late bull phase.
\- Excess multi-asset valuations inflated by quantitative easing.
\- Nearing the end of a 35 yr bond bull market.
\- Rising populism and anti-global, nationalistic sentiment.
\- Unknown effects of market weighted passive indexed funds (e.g. SPY).
Am I missing something? Are these ill-informed fears? What is the bull case?
The only bull case I can lay out is this.
\- This might be a is a secular bull market. Historical examples of secular bull markets include 1949-1966 (17 years); 1982-2000 (18 years; disregarding the crash of 87.)
\- The is a bullish consensus among 244 leading money managers, mutual fund managers, and hedge fund managers; especially on US equities.
70% favor U.S. stocks over other regions
Net overweight position in U.S. stocks is 21% and rising
25% bearish on global economic growth next year
\- Tax cuts.