So, I think a global slowdown is developing in Asia and Europe, along with spreading into emerging markets. The US is the last man standing, as it is the last domino to fall. The one question we ask: When do US traders start pricing in the next downturn? To get more color on the situation we have compiled a series of tweets that could help us learn a downturn is coming:
“Much lower Philly Fed than expected and it should continue to drop going forward according to my leading vs lagging indicator. Time to challenge the very rosy US outlook? Maybe…,” h/t @MikaelSarwe
"Much lower Philly Fed than expected and it should continue to drop going forward according to my leading vs lagging indicator. Time to challenge the very rosy US outlook? Maybe…," h/t @MikaelSarwe pic.twitter.com/xQ57jYy0U1
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) August 16, 2018
“Hard data growth differential between US and EU still favors,” h/t @LizAnnSonders
"Hard data growth differential between US and EU still favors," h/t @LizAnnSonders pic.twitter.com/eUHANyyIJS
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) August 16, 2018
“SouthKorea’s #KOSPI index, a proxy for world trade growth closed at the lowest level since April 2017,” h/t @C_Barraud
"SouthKorea's #KOSPI index, a proxy for world trade growth closed at the lowest level since April 2017," h/t @C_Barraud pic.twitter.com/LnUr1mPfIL
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) August 16, 2018
About that “China falling apart” thing… what about US?
About that "China falling apart" thing… what about US? pic.twitter.com/dwo0rxmnF7
— Tim Backshall (@credittrader) August 16, 2018
In a global slowdown, the US is the last domino to fall. China and industrial metals plunge are forwarning us danger ahead.
china slowdown pic.twitter.com/HfUVeta30c
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) August 16, 2018
Peter Schiff weighs in on the coming slowdown
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) August 16, 2018
Swedish FinMin Andersson: There Are ‘Big Risks’ To The Economy
Swedish FinMin Andersson: There Are ‘Big Risks’ To The Economy
-More Important Than Lowering Taxes
-Seeing ‘Unorthodox’ Econ Policy In US
-US Expansion Is Not Sustainable In Long Term— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) August 16, 2018
Philly Fed on an ISM-basis shows a 3 pt pullback. Yet the ‘special question’ shows inflation heading to 3% in the next decade from 2% in May. Stagflation thumbprints.
Philly Fed on an ISM-basis shows a 3 pt pullback. Yet the 'special question' shows inflation heading to 3% in the next decade from 2% in May. Stagflation thumbprints.
— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) August 16, 2018
US Slowdown coming: All of the monetary aggregates have slowed substantially, and real M1 growth is flagging a 1% stall-speed growth economy once we get passed all the pre-tariff buying activity and fiscal sugar-high that skewed Q2 GDP.
All of the monetary aggregates have slowed substantially, and real M1 growth is flagging a 1% stall-speed growth economy once we get passed all the pre-tariff buying activity and fiscal sugar-high that skewed Q2 GDP. pic.twitter.com/Nvxoae76sH
— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) August 14, 2018
Trump trade war = global uncertainty = slowdown
No contagion, eh? The only folks that can't see it in the FX and commodity markets spend too much of their day gazing at the SPX and Russell 2000. There is no decoupling, just lags. pic.twitter.com/521jXi9BiE
— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) August 15, 2018
Trump flips on dollar stance — now wants strong dollar the continues risks for EM and US multinationals.
Trump and Kudlow semm to be shifting $$$ comments from its too strong to its now steady and mirrors strength in the Trump economy…
— FxMacro (@fxmacro) August 16, 2018
Fed QT + interest rate hike cycle are bearish for stocks.
Fed's balance sheet assets shrank by a huge $29.1 bln in latest week, the most since 2012 #QT pic.twitter.com/8YE2uw4qkJ
— Robert Burgess (@BobOnMarkets) August 16, 2018
China’s negative credit impulse has yet to make it to the US, but it ultimately will. It took ~ 1.5 years of negative credit growth to hit US equities in 2015; we’re about at that time now. More parallels to 2015:
China’s negative credit impulse has yet to make it to the US, but it ultimately will. It took ~ 1.5 years of negative credit growth to hit US equities in 2015; we’re about at that time now. More parallels to 2015: pic.twitter.com/oVXuNDNcgR
— Justin Benedetti (@QustnEverything) August 15, 2018
SPX500 versus Industrial Metals — notice the collapse in metals?
$SPX versus GSCI Industrial Metals — wow. pic.twitter.com/4p6sPnrAmQ
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) August 16, 2018
SPX500 versus Chinese internet stocks — notice the collapse in internet stocks? (Apple gets about 20% revs from China)
$SPX versus Internet China Stocks — WTF pic.twitter.com/G6sUSzdm3L
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) August 16, 2018
APPL versus China-A shares
$AAPL versus China pic.twitter.com/OcqQtKmztK
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) August 16, 2018
SPX500 versus EEM
how long until American markets propped up on buybacks recognizes that EM is imploding?? pic.twitter.com/66IqBVhiMR
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) August 15, 2018
Could Dow Global (weekly) be ready for the next leg down once US traders start pricing in a slowdown?
