by Chris Black
According to a fresh-from-the-oven Politico-Morning Consult poll, the Republicans already overtook Democrats heading into midterms on a generic congressional ballot. This marks a premiere for the GOP , being the first time since April last year when more voters (39 percent respectively) prefer a GOP candidate, vs 38 percent opting for a Democrat. It’s interesting that almost one in four American voters is still undecided, 23 percent to be precise, and that means that Politico’s poll comes with a relatively high degree of uncertainty, even if the poll claims a margin error of plus/minus 2 percentage points.
You know that saying attributed to Mark Twain: there are lies, damn’ lies and statistics, and the same goes for polls. Nowadays, polls are mostly used to manipulate public opinion and to form future trends. Remember how the polls credited Hillary with a 98% chance of winning the 2016 presidential election? The pollsters lost all their credibility since the Trump phenomena, but I am digressing. The same poll who now credits Republicans with the better chance of winning the midterms, thus securing Trump’s presidency for another two years, also found the Donald’s approval rating standing at 47 percent overall.
To Democrats, the latest Morning Consult-Politico poll is pretty shocking, considering that it comes in the aftermath of the dire warning via Democratic SuperPAC Priorities USA. According to those guys, Democrats’ daily obsession with criticizing everything Trump says and does is not helping them much with winning the hearts and minds of Americans, who are now seeing real benefits (like, in their pockets, on their paychecks and so forth and so on) from Trump’s policies: the tax cuts, the corporations giving bonuses following the tax cuts and hiring more people, the repeal of one of ObamaCare’s fundamental pillars in the same tax-legislation bill (the individual mandate, a rule requiring most US residents to have health insurance or pay a penalty), jobs coming back etc. The Democratic SuperPAC Priorities USA’s warning reads:
“In the last few weeks, Democrats turned their attention to other issues while Trump has continued to promote his economic policies, and Trump’s numbers have incrementally improved as a result”
Honestly, I believe Trump’s approval numbers are probably even higher than what they are reporting. There are two factors at play here. One is that a lot of President Trump’s supporters won’t talk to pollsters anymore. So he has a lot of stealth support that they can’t measure. And two, they insist on oversampling Democrats even in areas where the Republicans won by wide margins. That skews the overall results. However, there’s a caveat to that: this optimistic poll is fueling a false sense of confidence among Republicans. While I sincerely hope that Republicans increase their majorities in both houses of Congress, it is also important to look at what’s happening at state governments. Democrats have flipped 36 state seats from red to blue in recent months, and they and the national media are keeping it on the down-low. Democrats are running very effective grass roots ground campaigns, and Republicans are sitting on their hands, thinking they have everything in the bag. Better wake up now and get off your duffs. The Democrats are very motivated out of hate and lust for power. All is not as it seems.
Thinking past stage one, the left might suffer in the 2018 mid-terms, but if the Congress passes another amnesty – and “DACA” is nothing but amnesty for illegals -,does not end chain migration, visa lotteries, birthright citizenship, build the Wall, and aggressively begin deporting all illegals including emptying the prisons, it will be a short lived and Pyrrhic victory.
Now, not in two years, five years, or ten years.
Forget the popular vote. Look at the Electoral College and note that if Florida or Texas is flipped from Red to Blue, colors won’t matter, it is lights out for ever having another Republican president. If a few million more illegals are voting in 2020 the loss of Florida or Texas is inevitable, if not in 2020, then in 2024. Just as Lyndon Johnson, Ted Kennedy and Barack Hussein intended. Remember “fundamental transformation”? No more lies. No more promises. No more “compromise”. No more wait until… Demographics are destiny.
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