GDPNow and other GDP estimates took a dive today on weaker than expected manufacturing reports.
The GDPNow forecast for third-quarter GDP fell to 1.8% today on weak economic reports.
Gold and Treasuries Rally
Manufacturing ISM Worst Since 2009 on Severe Contraction of Export Orders@IanShepherdson "First-ever recession caused by actions of the president"t.co/POOo9lT110
— Mike "Mish" Shedlock (@MishGEA) October 1, 2019
Nothing like this stinker of a number to turn around #Gold and #Treasuries. . .and cause a reality check for #stocks t.co/MBiODT0cM3
— Chris Temple (@NatInvestor) October 1, 2019
GDP Estimates
Q3 GDP growth estimate changes on Friday
Morgan Stanley ⬇️ from 2.1% to 1.5%
Macro Economic Advisors ⬇️ from
2.2% to 1.6%
NY Fed ⬇️ from 2.24% to 2.04%
Atlanta Fed ⬆️ from 1.9% to 2.1%— UPFINA (@UPFINAcom) October 1, 2019
Oxford Estimate
The disappointing August real consumption and core capital goods orders growth caused many Q3 GDP growth estimates to plummet.
Oxford Economics’ estimate fell from 1.8% to 1.3%.
(h/t) @GregDacoArticle: t.co/U89Q4iCAwI pic.twitter.com/Wo76YSsOwR
— UPFINA (@UPFINAcom) October 1, 2019
Real Final Sales
The important number is “Real Final Sales“.
That’s the bottom line estimate for the economy. The rest is inventory adjustment which nets to zero over time.
The GDPNow estimate of Real Final Sales fell to 1.6% today, a new low for the series. It’s near, and possibly below the economic stall point.
Also, please see my report today: Manufacturing ISM Worst Since 2009 on Severe Contraction of Export Orders.