CORRECTIONS IN BEAR MARKETS ARE UP pic.twitter.com/6Dx3aMvUcw
— OCCUPY WISDOM (@OccupyWisdom) January 19, 2019
Wow, check this out: Seasonality, $SPX 2019 is tracking 2018 pic.twitter.com/2WM2ZF6wuS
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) January 18, 2019
Grantham, Who Forecast 2000 and 2008 Declines: “The Bubble Is Bursting”
A multiyear bubble in American stocks is now deflating as sentiment turns negative despite solid fundamentals, and investors should own as few U.S. equities as possible, according to GMO LLC.
The size and duration of the moves in stock prices in the final three months of 2018 toward their long-term average valuation is consistent with the moves linked with the bursting of the technology boom in early 2000 and the crash of 1929, according to Martin Tarlie, part of the asset-allocation team at the firm overseeing about $70 billion.
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) January 19, 2019
US markets have priced in a very mild mid-cycle slowdown.
If that’s all we experience, prices are fair. If the US starts to look like Europe/China, there is more to go. pic.twitter.com/pIhbmhOg0R
— THE LONG VIEW ⚫️ (@HayekAndKeynes) January 18, 2019
Too Loose, Too Long: Central Banks Lack Weapons to Combat Next Recession
New York (CNN Business)If there’s a serious recession on the horizon, the world’s central banks may have trouble fighting it.
Central banks took dramatic and unorthodox steps to prevent economic collapse during the financial crisis. They slashed interest rates, and in the years that followed spent trillions on bonds as part of an effort to spur growth.
One decade later, global central banks are only starting to reverse those moves.
Interest rates in developed economies remain incredibly low; in some places, they’re even negative. The Federal Reserve is unloading some of the bonds it bought, but central banks in Europe and Japan have not yet done so.
The question now is whether central banks waited too long to raise rates to more normal levels, leaving them unprepared for the next crisis.
“If we have a recession, I think it’s going to be worse than normal,” said Kenneth Rogoff, a professor at Harvard University and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. “It will be more difficult to respond.”
Politics is also making life more complicated for central banks. In countries like India and Turkey, they’ve faced threats of political interference, while President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized the Federal Reserve.
Before the ECB Can Even Raise Rates Once, Market Already Expects It to Wait
BENGALURU (Reuters) – The European Central Bank is expected to wait until the fourth quarter to raise its deposit rate, later than thought just a month ago, according to economists in a Reuters poll, who also said the chances of a euro zone recession have grown.
US Consumer versus Gasoline Prices pic.twitter.com/OBO5ajVRBZ
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) January 19, 2019
In the "greatest economy ever," the search term: "bankruptcy lawyer near me" explodes pic.twitter.com/uCS57Eotmv
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) January 19, 2019
Isn't it nice how everything is now back to normal? :^) pic.twitter.com/NNkQaadZ3m
— Mago da Bolsa (@magotrader) January 17, 2019
Here come the defaults: Credit outlook darkens
ECB rate hike to be delayed as recession risks rise again: Reuters poll
Italy central bank slashes 2019 GDP growth forecast
ROME, Jan 18 (Reuters) – The Italian economy will grow just 0.6 percent this year, the Bank of Italy said on Friday, slashing a projection of 1.0 percent made a ..