Signs that we’re late cycle, the warning shots have been fired

Signs that we’re late cycle

-Mature Fed hiking cycle
-Commodity rally
-Tech/Financials leading
-Flatter yield curve
-Tight labor market
-Rising inflation
-Peaking PMI
-Surging consumer/NFIB confidence
-Tight credit spreads/low VIX
-High corporate leverage
-Low vacancy

twitter.com/HayekAndKeynes/status/1006673494275448834

Just comparing it to other cycles… But I would argue high debt levels mean higher sensitivity to rate hikes

The warning shots have been fired

-equity flash crash /VIX
-realized political risk
-EM carry trade wrecked

Credit spreads are likely to be next. US equities are likely to be the last to go

twitter.com/HayekAndKeynes/status/1006589418893955073

Progression is slow. But relentless.

We’ve passed peaked growth

h/t @HayekAndKeynes

More Stories You May Like

If everyone who reads our story, who likes it, helps fund it, our future would be much more secure. For as little as $1, you can support the IWB – and it only takes a minute. Thank you. 281 views

Follow News The Mainstream Media Ignores, Please Sign Up For Our Newsletter!