The Slow Motion Train Wreck – Copper alarm is blaring, yield curve could invert during next rate hike, German economy headed for a sharp slowdown, China’s currency declines resume…

Copper Alarm Is Blaring!

The 10 year to 30 year #treasury spread is now < 11 basis points.

00.10 or 1/10 of 1%, for literally TWENTY YEARS of #inflation risk.

Yield curve could invert during next rate hike

3-Month Treasury Bill Yield…
Jul ’09: 0.17%
Jul ’10: 0.17%
Jul ’11: 0.02%
Jul ’12: 0.10%
Jul ’13: 0.04%
Jul ’14: 0.02%
Jul ’15: 0.01%
Jul ’16: 0.28%
Jul ’17: 1.06%
Today; 1.99% (10-Yr high)

Spread b/t 10-Yr & 2-Yr Treasury Yields…
Jul ’09: 2.53%
Jul ’10: 2.37%
Jul ’11: 2.72%
Jul ’12: 1.31%
Jul ’13: 2.14%
Jul ’14: 2.15%
Jul ’15: 1.76%
Jul ’16: 0.87%
Jul ’17: 0.94%
Today: 0.28% (flattest since Aug 2007)

Chart: German economy headed for a sharp slowdown as expectations dip to the lowest level since 2012

Chart: China’s currency declines resume –

Europe slowdown is clear in YTD performance of sectors that were clear consensus Longs:

– Banks (adding weak growth to EM exposure)
– Autos (adding risk of tariffs)

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