IMHO:
1) Dollar in range of past 5 years
2) 2018 was global synchronized growth, now synchronized slowdown
3) EM face massive maturity wall in USD 19 and 20
4) Commodities collapsedAll = Run away from EMs into a deflationary slowdown with massive $ denominated maturities ahead
— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) December 8, 2018
WHAT IS THIS ALL TELLING ?
Global Markets Recap wk49
• Global M.PMIs tell you slowdown
• ISM tells you GDP +4.9%/+4.3%
• US 2s5s tells you recession 2019
• US 2s10s tells you slowdown
• Credit spreads tell you slowdown
• VIX tells you buckle up
• SPX 200d SMA =past tense— Kai Pflughaupt 🌐 (@MacroTechnicals) December 8, 2018
1881 of 2767 global stocks are down more than 20% and 86 of 94 equity indexes are underwater. t.co/j2imAlhJLw
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 8, 2018
MSCI EU Apparel & Luxury collapsing – everyone too busy rioting to buy things? pic.twitter.com/oLfbtf9BgP
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) December 8, 2018
the world is nearing the point where global central banks would inject a bunch of credit into the global economy – if that does not happen – then hard landing is likely pic.twitter.com/nPDWQbCZq7
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) December 8, 2018
When CDX NA IG (monthly) >50sma, something tends to break – a crisis is developing in real time pic.twitter.com/RyTU2EPw0S
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) December 8, 2018
global slowdown pic.twitter.com/pbGOkwAd2g
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) December 9, 2018
Rickards: “The Makings of a Global Debt Crisis Are in Place”
“If another crisis happens, the Fed will cut rates to zero. But it won’t be enough. They’ll have to abandon QT and go back to QE4. Other central banks will follow the Fed’s lead. Investors should prepare now for the inevitable crackup. Having cash and gold are two places to start.”