This could be the first quarter since Q4 2016 in which the revenues beat rate is below 50% and 64% of companies guiding down.

With Earnings Season Nearly Over 60% Of Companies Have Missed On The Top Line, Revenues Down 1% From Last Year

The second quarter earnings season is almost over with 87% of companies reporting. And so far it has been an unmitigated disaster, with only 51% of companies beating on the far easily fudgible bottom line number (which further facilitates the transition of America to a “part-time worker society” as repeatedly demonstrated here), but a stunning 60% of all S&P member missing on the top line. More importantly, for the first time since the Lehman collapse, year-over-year revenue “growth” will be negative, declining at 1% from Q2 2011. Whether the reason is due to FX exposure in a world in which the USD suddenly found a major bid in the past 3 months, or because of corporate unwillingness to reinvest their cash into their business and increase CapEx is unknown. But one thing is certain: absent central bank intervention, which for some inexplicable reason has seen the PE multiple of the S&P rise to 2012 highs, the stock market would not be where it is today if corporate fundamentals had anything to do with actual stock price.

#Insight – negative surprises in Q3 reporting is already showing up in guidance, as a record number companies have already guided LOWER! The market hasn’t noticed…..yet!

So far, 98 components of the S&P 500 SPX, +1.00%  have issued earnings outlooks for the quarter. Of these, a sharp majority — 76%, or 74 of the 98 — gave negative guidance. This is above both the five-year average of 71%, and it is also on track to be the highest quarterly percentage since the first quarter of 2016.

 

 

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