Today is going to be an insane day. $SPX does not like UST10Y 2.991. Signals end of cheap credit bubble. Smart money knows what to do.

The US 10-Yer Bond at 2.97% and close to breaking 3%. Risks:

– Signals end of cheap credit bubble.
– Sudden Stop: Flows out of EM, EU and into US
– Nominal and Real Losses in Negative Yield Bonds

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Mobius thinks that US stocks will crash by about 30% in 18 months or less.

Also, Jason talks about how many professional money managers and professional investing consultants who advise clients who have billions in assets under management are now telling their clients to start selling their stock positions every time the stock market rallies and to fade the stock market rallies. This selling pressure by “smart money” aka professional investors has increased a lot the last few months especially since the VIX spike in February. The buyers of stock continue to be mostly retail investors through mutual funds, passive investing (ETFs) which is considered “dumb money.” Also, high frequency trading (HFT) hedge funds are still occasionally buying stock but they are only short term focused and don’t care if the stock market does indeed crash in the near future.

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