US Economic Sentiment Indicator should shift lower in early 2019 reflecting turbulent stock market pic.twitter.com/85UleP0r4y
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) December 30, 2018
5. North American institutional investor confidence in the toilet — ongoing "de-risking" by the largest investors… $SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/LKQ0dGc94s
— Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) December 29, 2018
Goldman Sachs cuts growth forecast for first half of 2019. Volatile financial markets and softer economic data has led Goldman Sachs to trim its expectations for growth in 2019, the bank said on Saturday, but cautioned that a full-blown recession was not in the cards.
In a research note, the banking giant shaved its growth forecast for the first half of next year, from 2.4 percent to 2 percent, and said growth would slow to a virtual crawl below 2 percent in the second half.
Nevertheless, the bank declared it was “still not particularly worried about a recession“ — a fear that’s gathered pace in recent days with extreme volatility dominating trading,and driving major benchmarks into bear market territory.
An update of the current price/time slope versus previous bear market slopes. $SPX pic.twitter.com/LObsYFHur3
— Market Musings (@AndysCycles) December 30, 2018
Mortgage debt at $10.3 trillion, approaching peak at $10.7 trillion in early 2008
Americans are carrying more consumer debt than ever before but so far don’t seem to be having much trouble managing it.
Consumer debt, including credit cards, auto and student loans and personal loans, is on pace to top $4 trillion in 2019.
That comes even as mortgage debt approaches levels last seen during the housing meltdown. Homeowners…
Global growth estimates for 2019.
Not a single analyst in consensus expects a recession in 2019.
Good.
However…
90% of analysts did not see a recession in 2007, and even 70% of them did not see a crisis it was already in place.@FocusEconomics pic.twitter.com/56IM4sjOBE
— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) December 30, 2018