Why It Might Be A Very Cold Winter In The Mid-Atlantic Region

It’s the Sun, or the weakest Sun in over 100 years that may cause this winter’s cold:

“In terms of solar activity, we are now at the very end of the weakest solar cycle (#24) in more than a century and are rapidly approaching the next solar minimum – usually the least active time in a given solar cycle. In truth, there is a chance that we have already entered into the solar minimum phase which is not always known until “after-the-fact”. The last solar minimum that took place from 2007-to-2009 turned out to be the quietest period in at least a century and signs point to another deep solar minimum over the next couple of years. The last time an inactive sun coincided with a moderate El Nino event – somewhat similar to expectations for this winter – was during the winter of 2009-2010 and the Mid-Atlantic region experienced quite a cold and snowy winter with, for example, Washington, DC experiencing their snowiest winter ever. Looking back to the preceding solar minimum which occurred in 1995-1996, there also was a “gangbuster” winter season in the I-95 corridor which included one of the biggest snowstorms ever on January 6-9, 1996.”

Here is a chart showing the progressive weakening of the Sun the last four Solar cycles. We are now in the third weakest cycle in 200 years since the Maunder Minimum, an especially cold time called the Little Ice Age.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/t/5bcc7408419202a53792a61f/1540125708966/4.png.gif?format=750w

It is not only important to monitor the potential for the formation of cold air masses in these particular regions, it is also important to determine if there will be a mechanism to bring the cold air masses southward from the northern latitudes into the mid-latitudes including the Mid-Atlantic region. “High-latitude blocking” is a phrase given to just such an atmospheric phenomenon that indeed can bring cold air masses into the eastern US from these cold air source regions and with the “block” in the atmosphere during these events, cold air can stick around for awhile which is often an important pre-requisite for accumulating snow in some places such as the big cities of the I-95 corridor. “High-latitude blocking” during the winter season is characterized by persistent high pressure in northern latitude areas such as Greenland, northeastern Canada, and Iceland. There is evidence that low solar activity during solar minimum years tend to be well-correlated with more frequent “high-latitude blocking” events compared to normal.

www.perspectaweather.com/blog/20…ter-season

 

The world is cooling fast, since the big El Nino of 2016 we’ve cooled as much as the entire last 150 years:

GLOBAL COOLING: GLOBAL TEMPS HAVE DROPPED BY 0.65 C SINCE 2016
Date: 12/07/18 Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian
The failure of the atmosphere to warm in accordance with alarmist predictions is making it harder and harder to come up with a bona fide story that can scare you.
In a post a few days ago, I noted that “the whole climate issue seems to have mostly disappeared from the news lately.” Commenter niceguyeddie responded by giving me a link to the Washington Post (eddie called it “the ‘other’ Pravda”), and an article of July 5 by a guy named Jason Samenow headlined “Red-hot planet: All-time heat records have been set all over the world during the past week.” In the intervening week since this article, a few people on the internet have been busy making mincemeat of Samenow’s rather pitiful effort. For MC readers who don’t go out searching the internet regularly for real information on climate to combat the propaganda from the various Pravdas out there, I thought I would do the public service of presenting some of this real information here.

First, some basic background is needed to develop appropriate bullshit radar on this subject. If you follow climate or weather information even a little, you will already know that on any given day, somewhere in the world, some weather station, or more likely multiple stations, is recording an “all time high” temperature for the particular day in question, while some other weather station, or maybe multiple stations, is recording an “all time low.” It follows that the fact that multiple “all time high” records were set during the course of a week tells you nothing about climate change. There could have been even more all time lows, and the overall average could have gone down, no matter how many “all time highs” were recorded. Any reader of any intelligence whatsoever will immediately be asking, don’t just tell me about “all time highs,” but tell me what is the overall picture? How many all time lows were there? What is happening with the “average” temperature? You will not be surprised to learn that Samenow does not provide the answers to those questions. In other words, his article is not intended to provide useful information to the intelligent reader, but rather to propagandize those lacking in either basic background information or critical thinking ability or both.

There is an obvious source for the answer to the last question as to what is happening with the “average,” and that is the easily-available UAH global lower troposphere record, derived from satellite sensors. That record exists from 1979 to present. Here is the latest chart from UAH going through the end of June 2018:

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_September_2018_v6-550x317.jpg

So with that simple first step, we know that the “average” world temperature for June 2018 was +0.21 deg C above the 1981 – 2010 mean. That represented a decline of about 0.65 deg C from the all time high of this 39-year record, which was reached in early 2016. The 0.65 deg C decline represented more than 75% of the amount by which the average temperature had exceeded the 1981 – 2010 mean at the highest point. Suddenly the fact that some large number of “all time highs” was being set at the end of June does not seem very significant.

www.thegwpf.com/why-climate-chan…-the-news/

www.drroyspencer.com/

h/t Natura Naturans

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