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Recession threat may mean stock-market investors no longer see bad news on economy as good news

Investors are suddenly worried about a potential recession. That means “bad news” on the economy might no longer be “good news” for the stock market.

Until recently, investors welcomed signs of a slowing economy, figuring it meant the Federal Reserve would soon stop raising interest rates, presumably in time to avert a recession as inflation cooled. Following last month’s banking troubles, investors appear more fearful of a potential downturn, market watchers said.

The market has shifted its focus from inflation to recession this year, according to Michele Morra, portfolio manager at Moneyfarm. The recent employment data adds to the growing evidence that inflation is slowing down, “and even if taking into account a more dovish monetary policy, the main focus is recession,” Morra said.

The past week’s data provided fresh evidence that the U.S. central bank’s tightening cycle is finally having an effect on the labor market. While the March job report was strong, as the U.S. added 236,000 jobs, there are some hints that the labor market is softening.

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