Get ready for the trading week of October 15th, 2018; Earnings Season Begins!

by bigbear0083

Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week of October 15th – 19th, 2018.

Earnings could be what turns the tide for stocks – (Source)

  • Earnings season gets underway in the week ahead, and that could help calm some of the frayed nerves in the stock market if corporate outlooks remain positive.
  • Stocks bounced on Friday, and the S&P 500 landed back on an important technical level, a positive way to start the week ahead.
  • Fed speakers and minutes from the Fed’s last meeting will be a big focus, after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments suggesting more rate hikes sparked a recent jump in interest rates.

Stocks fell on Friday after the release of mixed employment data jolted interest rates higher.


After the wildest market week in months, investors are looking to U.S. corporate earnings season to soothe frayed nerves in the coming week.


Stocks sold off sharply in the past week, and even with a bounce back on Friday, the S&P 500 was down 4.1 percent. A sudden jump in interest rates and worries about the impact of tariffs and trade disputes on earnings drove stocks lower, with some of the worst losses in growth stocks.


The S&P ended the week on a high note, up 1.4 percent on Friday but closing at 2,767, one point above its 200-day moving average. The moving average is a momentum measure, and it is widely watched, even beyond stock market chartists.


“The S&P 500 closed right on the 200-day. It’s just like a magnet. Everyone looks at these levels as super important, and that’s where it ended up,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR. “We enter next week on tenterhooks. There’s a whole lot of nervousness. … Sitting on support, rather than sitting on resistance, is always a better way to enter the earnings season.”


Companies reporting in the week ahead include Bank of America on Monday; Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Johnson and Johnsonand IBM on Tuesday; Abbott Labs on Wednesday; American Expresson Thursday and Procter and Gamble on Friday.


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This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P HEAT MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday’s close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY’S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday’s close:

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S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday’s close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday’s close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO’s for this week:

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Friday’s Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR CHART LINK #2!)

Why Bulls Smile After Midterm Elections

Volatility is heating up in October, with some big drops for stocks late last week. Now let’s put things in perspective. The S&P 500 Index just had its least volatile third quarter since 1963, and it hasn’t closed up or down more than 1% for more than three months in a row—one of the longest streaks ever. Not to mention the S&P 500 has been up six months in a row, and some type of volatility or correction is perfectly typical. It might feel bad when it happens, but pullbacks are a normal part of bull markets.

“Some pre-midterm volatility could be in the cards, but the good news is that looking at the past 18 midterms (back to 1946), the S&P 500 was higher a year later every single time,” said Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. This helps put in perspective just how much of a tailwind the calendar could be for investors here.

As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, the S&P 500 has been up 14.5% on average a year after all midterm elections going back to 1946. In addition, all 18 midterms saw higher returns 12 months later.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

So “Sell in May” Didn’t Work This Year?

Not so fast. The answer is: We don’t know yet, the Worst Six Months (WSM) are not over yet. People forget that Sell in May is NOT the whole seasonality. Our Best and Worst Months Tactical Switching Strategies are based on the Dow’s and S&P’s Best Six Months (BSM) from November through April and the Worst Six Months from May through October, and NASDAQ’s Best Eight Months (B8M) from November through June and the Worst Four Months (W4M) from July through October.

The market’s rise from May through September was impressive, but folks forgot about October. NASDAQ just made its lowest close since May. And from our NASDAQ Best Eight Months Seasonal Sell Sign on June 21, 2018 at 7712.95 it’s down 5.0% at yesterday’s close.

The past two days have reminded everyone of October’s frightful history of crashes, corrections and market calamities. Our October Almanac points out that October is the best midterm month, but we also warned of October’s scary record.

“The term “Octoberphobia” has been used to describe the phenomenon of major market drops occurring during the month. Market calamities can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, so stay on the lookout and don’t get whipsawed if it happens…. This year is a midterm year, but the market has been resilient thus far during the Worst Months which may temper full-month October results.”

October isn’t over yet, it could still be up solidly after another fast correction, which would likely also give us a sweet Seasonal MACD Buy Signal. Sell in May is not dead, but let’s not count our gains or corrections before they are fully hatched. The Worst Six Months May-October (AKA Sell in May) are not over. Q4 2018 is not over either, in fact it’s only just begun. So there is plenty of time for the 4th quarter rally to materialize as well as the “Sweet Spot” of the 4-year cycle we have spoken a great deal about lately.

In all likelihood, the correction has a bit more to go, perhaps as deep as the correction in Q1 this year. Remember all the talk about how long we went without a 10% correction? Well welcome to a little mean reversion. That goes double for all the conjecture that Sell in May has not been working the past 5 years. NASDAQ B8M has. But nevertheless 5 years is not a cycle or statistically significant. Nine years is a little short, but the great recession low of March 2009 was a significant moment and as noted in the table below the BSM has outperformed the WSM, by a considerable margin since 2009 with more gains from NASDAQ’s Best 8 Months.

In all likelihood, the correction has a bit more to go until folks start asking out loud “should I sell?” And that should set up our Best Months Seasonal Buy Signal nicely.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for October 12th, 2018

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 10.14.18

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]()

(VIDEO NET YET UP!)

Here are the most notable companies reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-


  • $NFLX
  • $BAC
  • $GS
  • $UNH
  • $CLF
  • $PYPL
  • $IBM
  • $JNJ
  • $LRCX
  • $DPZ
  • $BLK
  • $MS
  • $PGR
  • $ISRG
  • $SCH
  • $GWW
  • $CSX
  • $AA
  • $ABT
  • $WGO
  • $JBHT
  • $NUE
  • $SLB
  • $HON
  • $CMA
  • $BX
  • $SKX
  • $KMI
  • $PG
  • $ASML
  • $AXP
  • $URI
  • $TSM
  • $URAL
  • $PLD
  • $FHN
  • $ETFC
  • $INFY
  • $PM
  • $STI
  • $USB
  • $TXT
  • $ERIC
  • $BBT
  • $CREE
(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK’S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK’S HIGHEST VOLATILE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:


Monday 10.15.18 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY’S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 10.15.18 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY’S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 10.16.18 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY’S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 10.16.18 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY’S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 10.17.18 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY’S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 10.17.18 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY’S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 10.18.18 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY’S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 10.18.18 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY’S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 10.19.18 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY’S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 10.19.18 After Market Close:

NONE.


[–]bigbear0083Content Manager[S] 1 point 


Netflix, Inc. $339.56

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, October 16, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.68 per share on revenue of $3.99 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.70 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat The company’s guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.68 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 134.48% with revenue increasing by 33.67%. Short interest has decreased by 3.7% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.6% above its 200 day moving average of $324.52. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company’s last earnings release. On Wednesday, September 26, 2018 there was some notable buying of 4,639 contracts of the $380.00 call and 4,487 contracts of the $380.00 put expiring on Friday, October 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 11.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


Bank of America Corp. $28.46

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, October 15, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.62 per share on revenue of $22.66 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.64 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 29.17% with revenue decreasing by 10.56%. Short interest has increased by 11.1% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.8% below its 200 day moving average of $30.52. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company’s last earnings release. On Friday, October 12, 2018 there was some notable buying of 63,145 contracts of the $30.50 call expiring on Friday, October 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 5.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. $213.87

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, October 16, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $5.42 per share on revenue of $8.37 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.68 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.97% with revenue increasing by 0.53%. Short interest has decreased by 16.5% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.4% below its 200 day moving average of $241.45. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company’s last earnings release. On Friday, October 12, 2018 there was some notable buying of 3,008 contracts of the $220.00 call expiring on Friday, October 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 5.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


UnitedHealth Group, Inc. $259.61

UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:55 AM ET on Tuesday, October 16, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.30 per share on revenue of $56.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.37 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 24.06% with revenue increasing by 11.54%. Short interest has decreased by 17.0% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.9% above its 200 day moving average of $242.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company’s last earnings release. On Friday, September 28, 2018 there was some notable buying of 4,103 contracts of the $270.00 call expiring on Friday, November 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 4.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


Cleveland-Cliffs Inc $12.01

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Friday, October 19, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $723.70 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.72 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 82% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 83.33% with revenue increasing by 3.62%. Short interest has increased by 13.2% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 27.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.6% above its 200 day moving average of $8.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company’s last earnings release. On Monday, October 8, 2018 there was some notable buying of 18,474 contracts of the $13.00 call expiring on Friday, January 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 11.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


PayPal $79.03

PayPal (PYPL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, October 18, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.54 per share on revenue of $3.67 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat The company’s guidance was for earnings of $0.53 to $0.55 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 17.39% with revenue increasing by 13.31%. Short interest has increased by 32.8% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 10.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.5% below its 200 day moving average of $81.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company’s last earnings release. On Friday, October 12, 2018 there was some notable buying of 12,628 contracts of the $87.50 call expiring on Friday, November 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


International Business Machines Corp. $140.85

International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, October 16, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.40 per share on revenue of $19.12 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.43 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 3.03% with revenue decreasing by 0.17%. Short interest has increased by 31.8% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.8% below its 200 day moving average of $149.50. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company’s last earnings release. On Monday, October 1, 2018 there was some notable buying of 5,067 contracts of the $157.50 call expiring on Friday, November 2, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 5.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


[–]bigbear0083Content Manager[S] 1 point 


Johnson & Johnson $133.87

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Tuesday, October 16, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.03 per share on revenue of $19.91 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.84% with revenue increasing by 1.32%. Short interest has decreased by 14.7% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.4% above its 200 day moving average of $130.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company’s last earnings release. On Friday, September 28, 2018 there was some notable buying of 7,024 contracts of the $132.00 put expiring on Friday, October 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 3.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


Lam Research Corp. $143.61

Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, October 16, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.20 per share on revenue of $2.30 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat The company’s guidance was for earnings of $3.00 to $3.40 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 7.51% with revenue decreasing by 7.19%. Short interest has decreased by 13.1% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 22.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.0% below its 200 day moving average of $184.08. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company’s last earnings release. On Friday, October 5, 2018 there was some notable buying of 3,230 contracts of the $140.00 put and 3,174 contracts of the $140.00 call expiring on Friday, December 21, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 8.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


BlackRock, Inc. $427.70

BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:25 AM ET on Tuesday, October 16, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $6.93 per share on revenue of $3.67 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $7.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 17.06% with revenue increasing by 13.52%. Short interest has decreased by 22.0% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.0% below its 200 day moving average of $515.18. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company’s last earnings release. On Thursday, October 11, 2018 there was some notable buying of 2,128 contracts of the $440.00 call expiring on Friday, January 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

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