Global growth is undergoing a slowdown

by BoatSurfer600

When we look at the cargo volumes across ports, a similar picture is emerging. While the US export price index is up 5%, the volumes are down a staggering 30% in New York and New Jersey. Even the semiconductor exports are down 30% across Asia, indicating that global growth is undergoing a slowdown

Sagar Singh

Manufacturing 47.1 vs 46.8. Prices Paid (Inflation) 53.2 vs 49.

Slightly better than expected 47.1 vs 46.8.

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Prices Paid which is a proxy for manufacturing inflation or goods inflation was 53.2 vs 49 expected.

ISM Numbers – above 50 indicates an increase / growth. Below 50 means contraction.

www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/april/

Comments from survey:

  • “Having invested heavily to de-risk the supply chain over the last three years due to COVID-19, we are looking to reset with a number of our suppliers to reduce inventory, which has grown steadily over that period. Lead times are generally coming down, although electronic components are still a concern.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
  • “Business continues to contract, albeit slowly year over year. We are burning existing inventory when possible and catching up on orders. Suppliers are shipping materials at a faster pace, especially to get the payable process started at the end of the first quarter. Employment is steady, with manpower decisions based on expected order flow in the second quarter, which is subject to change. Staffing levels in our sector are not decreasing, but employment openings are slowing across the economy, which reduces the pool of replacement candidates. We are currently projecting that the third quarter will see some improvement in business, especially in our metals coating for the aerospace industry. But unforeseen circumstances — international or domestic — could change things quickly.” [Chemical Products]
  • Pricing pressures continue to plague daily operations. After consecutive years of inflation and aggressive pricing to our retailers, we are starting to see resistance in the willingness to pass along pricing to end consumers. Discounting has entered into conversations.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
  • “Business is steady. Closely monitoring demand going forward to detect a negative trend.” [Transportation Equipment]
  • Customers seem to be quite heavy on inventory (as is my employer). This has made for a significant slowdown in sales orders for the last number of months.” [Machinery]
  • “Faster deliveries and shorter lead times from suppliers. … Customers starting to talk build rate reductions for the second half of 2023.” [Fabricated Metal Products]
  • “Business conditions remain strong, with sales and bookings exceeding plan. The backlog continues to grow due to increased bookings and supply chain constraints on electronic components.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
  • “Sales continue to be soft, similar to 2019 pre-COVID. Expect softness to last for as long as another two years.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]
  • Business is picking up a bit in the automotive and construction industries — not on par with 2022 but beginning to look better.” [Plastics & Rubber Products]
  • “We seem to be in a season of contradictions. Business is slowing, but in some ways, it isn’t. Prices for some commodities are stabilizing, but not for others. Some product shortages are over, others aren’t. Trucking is more plentiful, except when it isn’t. There’s uncertainty one day, but not the next. The next couple of months should provide answers — or not. It’s hard to make projections at the moment.” [Primary Metals]
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