Has the Dutch Election Been Fixed? Not a Conspiracy Theory, Just Numbers and a Question

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by Mark Angelides

Polls have been spectacularly wrong in recent years; Trump, Brexit, the UK 2015 General Election, all suggested that the Status Quo would prevail. And of course, they were wrong. This is in part due to how the polls are conducted, and the way in which they are often used as propaganda tools as opposed to informative data sets, but they are still a valuable tool if you know how to read the raw information.
The Dutch election results announced today, show how wrong the pollsters can be yet again. It was in fact, only the very last exit poll that got anywhere close to the final result. In case you didn’t catch them, here they are (with 93% counted):

  • Prime Minister Rutte’s VVD to win 33 seats
  • Geert Wilders’ PVV 20 seats
  • V66 and CDA tie for 19
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It’s a good result for Wilders, but not quite the amount he was expecting (and that many across Europe were hoping for). The polls were wrong again, but this time in the opposite direction. The anti-establishment candidate actually did worse than predicted. So either, all of the reports about “Shy Voters”, insurgent votes and the like have been just made up, or something else is happening.
The puzzling aspect (and the reason for this article), is that a story is doing the rounds about some areas (of the 388 voting regions) have reported turnout of 100%.???
Does this mean that of all the people who registered to vote before the cut-off date actually turned up and cast their ballot? Apparently not one person died, not one person sat it out, not one person went away on holiday or business. This strikes me as a statistical impossibility.
Even North Korea only had the gall to suggest that 99.97% of voters turned up for the Dear Leader. In NK, they have military buses that collect people and take them to the booths regardless of ill health, yet Holland managed to beat even that!
While it is possible that the 100% figure is inaccurate, it’s worth asking how the polls got this so badly wrong. As mentioned, the Trump and Brexit votes were polled wrong because of data misuse (for establishment purposes) and the “Shy Trumper or Shy Brexiteer”. Who would be Shy about voting for the establishment candidate, the actual Prime Minister? It seems strange, it looks strange and it feels strange. Electoral fraud on any scale delegitimizes people’s democratic rights. This needs to be looked into.

7 thoughts on “Has the Dutch Election Been Fixed? Not a Conspiracy Theory, Just Numbers and a Question

  1. Most polls are biased. No media sponsored poll should ever be believed. Many polls are meant to push an opinion rather than read it. Some polls are legitimate, meant to read an opinion so a politician can craft the lies they put out.
    Fight back. Take every poll that is offered and lit to them. Corrupt the data.

  2. We don’t need to register. Everyone over 18 gets a voting pass in the mail. You show up with an ID and vote. 100 % or more is possible cuz people may vote anywhere in the country, not per se in their own “gemeente”. Ie county. Do yer homework!

  3. While I don’t rule out the possibility of election fraud, Wilders is simply a bad candidate.
    He’s far too extreme in many of his views (look up what he says about Muslims, for instance – and yes, every indication is he means ALL Muslims), he’s far too much into increasing military expenses, he’s far too much into the total surveillance state, and he seems to be totally in Israel’s pockets.
    While he’s completely right about some other things (more democracy, get out of the EU), I’d have a hard time voting for someone like him – and I presume it’s similar for people who can actually vote in the Netherlands. (It also provides a possible answer to why he was doing better in the polls: People saying “I’ve had enough with the establishment crooks! Now I’m voting for Wilders!” and then reconsidering after hearing one of his more extreme statements again. That would also explain why other small parties (GreenLeft and friends) were doing better than expected – people switching their protest vote from PVV to other groups perceived as “at least not the current establishment”.
    Someone slightly more moderate than Wilders (someone more like Trump, Farage or Le Pen) would probably have done better.
    Some towns reporting 100% or even more people voting are potentially legit because of the Dutch voting system – if you have a voting pass, you can vote anywhere in the country (once), so it’s common for people to cast the vote outside of their own town because they happen to be somewhere else (voting during lunch break at their workplace, for instance).

  4. Another curious fact: more ballot papers had to be printed and suddenly full ballot boxes appeared out of nowhere. Wanna tell me the highly-organised Dutch did not have exactly the right number of ballot papers for exactly the right number of registered voters?

  5. Curious to see if the latest revelations about Rutte and Merkel deceiving their fellow EU members by making a secret deal on migrants with Turkey will leave a dent.

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