NVAX – 4x potential – Market ignoring recurring revenue

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by geschtonkenflappd

Market is not paying attention to recurring revenue potential of Covid-19 vaccines. Given the scare of pandemic, for next few years, everyone will likely be forced to take annual jab (or at the very least travellers should need vaccination proof for quite sometime)

When it comes to next jab, people are most likely to go for Novavax because:

  1. Much lower side effects as compared to Moderna/Pfizer
  2. Cheaper (<= $16 per dose)
  3. Virus variants are becoming bigger problem. Protein subunit vaccines are better placed for covering variants than MRNA
  4. They plan to make a Combo vaccine with their Nanoflu – so instead of annual flu vaccine, people can simply go for combo
  5. And obviously highest efficacy (95.6% original, 86% UK, 60% SA strain)

It seems incredible that NVAX market cap is just $17B when Moderna is valued at $65B. To reach $65B, NVAX shares will need to shoot to $1070

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It can be argued that lower price than Moderna means lower revenue. But lower price coupled with no deep freeze requirement will translate to much higher market share. On top of that, they already have another very successful vaccine (Nanoflu – influenza) which completed phase 3 trial in March 2020.

Disclosure: I am long Nvax March 19 calls

Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


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