I've been helpfully informed that it is perfectly normal for a pharmaceutical company to send a private email to the FDA with a P.S. that the company just wired $3M to the US Treasury. Nothing to see here! — Jeffrey …
by confoundedinterest17 WTI Crude Oil spot price was up 91% from the beginning of 2021 to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Now it is up 142% thanks to the invasion of Ukraine. Energy prices are still soaring with UK Natural Gas prices …
by confoundedinterest17 Like the old E.F. Hutton ads, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell talks, people listen. Stocks rose, while bonds fell after Jerome Powell said he was inclined to back a quarter-point U.S. rate hike in March to combat inflation that is “too high.” In …
by confoundedinterest17 As someone who needs to move to Ohio, I would really appreciate it if mortgage rates would more closely follow the 10-year Treasury yield. But alas, Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate just rose to 4.30% as the US Treasury 10-year …
by confoundedinterest17 The U.S. merchandise-trade deficit unexpectedly widened in January to an all-time high, reflecting a record value of imports and a drop in shipments overseas. The shortfall grew to $107.6 billion last month from $100.5 billion in December, according to Commerce Department …
by confoundedinterest17 Russia is still attacking Ukraine and I am still seeing stories about actor/comedian Bob Saget’s cause of death. So now for something completely different. After last week’s Personal Consumption Expenditures, GDP and new home sales reports, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow …
by confoundedinterest17 I admit, I follow market data to get a signal of what is happening to mortgage rates and I got one. With Putin and Russia invading Ukraine, markets are in turmoil WTI Crude is up 8.14% this morning, Brent …
by confoundedinterest17 On Monday at 11:30 EST, The Federal Reserve Board of Governors will have a closed door session to determine if they should raise rates and/or change the speed of Fed asset purchases. Between raging inflation and the potential wag-the-dog Russian/Ukraine tensions, The …
by confoundedinterest17 I thought the last inflation report of 7.5% inflation was bad. But then the Atlanta Fed updated their inflation measure for flexible prices. Flexible inflation, less food and energy, is roaring at 19% YoY! Flexible prices are those …
by laflammaster This data is one week delayed.
by confoundedinterest17 Yes, The Federal Reserve could have raised their target rate at their January meeting, but chose not to raise rates. Instead, Chairman Powell said that rate increases are a comin’! I hope Powell wasn’t hoping for a slowdown …
by confoundedinterest17 Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is having trouble with the curve (yield curve, that is). It keeps inching up, meaning that Treasury’s cost of debt financing is inching up too. As Treasury yields keep rising, so does the problem …
by confoundedinterest17 The 10-year Treasury Note yield rose to 1.869% this afternoon as Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage commitment rate rose to 3.45%. And if you like The Fed Funds Futures data, it is pricing in 4 rate hikes by The Fed …
U.S. households are spending more on housing, food, gas, transportation and medical care and falling deeper into the red. From credit cards to car loans, the average family now owes $155,622. Higher prices are already taking a toll. As consumers …
by confoundedinterest17 2022 should be an interesting year as the wheels come off The Fed’s constant stimulation of markets. Today, we saw the 10-year Treasury Note yield almost hit 1.8% as mortgage rates rose to 3.22%. Unfortunately for crypto investors, bitcoin …
by confoundedinterest17 It looks like markets are buying into the prospect of The Federal Reserve raising rates three times (Bob) in 2022. And ceasing COVID monetary stimulus. Today, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to PRE-COVID levels of 1.783%. And the …
The market is now pricing in a >67% probability of the 1st Fed rate hike occurring in March. A month ago that probability was at 27%. pic.twitter.com/gSdiVgGbFh — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) January 6, 2022 pic.twitter.com/FyGD2vwFFi — Alastair (@StockBoardAsset) January 6, …
by confoundedinterest17 Happy New Year! And Treasuries are off to fast start with investors bailing on Treasuries and buying stocks. AND the expectation that The Fed will raise rates 3 times this year. The 10-year Treasury Note yield rose above 1.60% …
by confoundedinterest17 It has been almost a year since Joe Biden has been President of the United States and a Democrat majority took control of The House and Senate. And what has happened to the US Treasury yield curve slope …
(Bloomberg) — The U.S. Treasury’s top official for financial oversight said government regulators need action from lawmakers to adequately protect investors — and the wider financial system — from risks posed by stablecoins. “If Congress does not enact legislation, the …
A fatal flaw is saying "3.6% is still good" or "above trend." The growth rate almost never flatlines or moves sideways at "trend" The next major asset allocation pivot will come when the growth rate in the economy sustainably …
by confoundedinterest17 Despite the “Talk, Talk” from The Federal Reserve about balance sheet taper and rate “normalization,” we actually saw the 10-year Treasury yield fall from 1.6651% on 11/23/2021 to 1.343 on 12/3/2021. While the 30-year mortgage rate only fell from 3.31% to …
by confoundedinterest17 Alarm! (Bloomberg) — The recent drop in primary-dealer holdings of front-end Treasuries is another warning of potential market dislocation heading into the year-end liquidity vacuum. As of Nov. 24, primary dealers — which are mostly the large banks — were on the …
by confoundedinterest17 As The Federal Reserve tries to drain-off the extraordinary growth in its balance sheet since COVID without raising its target rate (good luck with that!), it is time to appraise where we are sitting. First, liquidity. (Bloomberg) Buying and selling …
#recession … #StockMarket #Bubble edition The underperformance of most US #stocks began in March… the same month Treasury #bonds #yields peaked and also began their downtrend. 📉 https://t.co/9fugzpfw5G — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) December 2, 2021 #smallcaps #Russell2k $IWM #RTY_F …
by confoundedinterest17 The latest scare hitting financial markets is the Omicron Variant (or Oh! Macron! Variant in France). While it caused an initial decline in global equity markets {Dow fell 900 points on early reports on Omicron), the Treasury market has …
by confoundedinterest17 President Biden nominated Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed Chair and nominated Lael Brainard as Deputy Chair to replace Richard Clarida. The US House of Overlords (aka, the US Senate) will hold hearings on the nominees (with …
By Matthew Piepenburg The facts keep piling up, and recent BIS, Treasury and Fed reports confirm that all twisted paths lead to gold. In a recent article, I posed the rhetorical question of when will policy makers finally stop lying and allow honest …
Tennessee Republican Sen. Bill Hagerty has extensive experience in the area of banking, and he expressed his “shock” on Thursday that President Biden’s nominee for Comptroller of the Currency, Dr. Saule Omarova, is up for consideration of the job given her “radical” …
Biden’s Marxist currency nominee Saule Omarova said that all private bank accounts should be taken over and controlled by the Federal Reserve. Saule Omaraova is the most radical and extreme nominee ever pushed forward by a US president. Omarova believes private bank …