Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 17th, 2019

by bigbear0083

Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 17th, 2019.

The Fed is likely to drop ‘patient’ word next week, clearing way for July cut, economists say – (Source)


Even with President Donald Trump and the markets calling for lower interest rates, the Fed is not likely to make a move when it meets next week, though it is expected to smooth the way for a rate cut later in the summer.


The timing of a Fed rate cut, the first in more than a decade, is up for debate. But such a move has become more of a given in markets, after May’s weak jobs data and softer-than-expected consumer price inflation.


A growing number of economists and investors are expecting a midsummer rate cut, at the July 30-31 meeting. There are also those who expect the Fed to wait until September, considering more data before cutting rates. Then there are a few, such as economists at Goldman Sachs, who expect no cut at all this year.


Economists expect the Fed to tilt its message toward lower rates, with officials lowering their interest rate forecasts in the so-called “dot plot,” a chart that anonymously reflects each Fed official’s rate forecast. They are also expected to reduce their outlook for economic growth, and acknowledge weaker inflation.


“Right now, they’ll just give a very dovish message that leans toward a July rate cut,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Natixis. “The market is worried enough about weakness in China, inflation undershooting and the possibility that tariffs disrupt the global supply chain that it’s hard for me not to think the Fed won’t be moving faster than people thought.”


Trump again criticized the Fed and Fed Chair Jerome Powell for the Fed’s interest rate policy this week, telling ABC News the Dow would be 10,000 points higher if the Fed didn’t raise interest rates. Economists say the president’s assault on the Fed is not likely to have an impact on its interest rate decisions.


The Fed’s meeting is expected to be the biggest event for markets in the coming week. There is also some data, including manufacturing and services PMIs on Friday, as well as housing starts Tuesday and home sales on Friday.


Barclays’ chief U.S. economist, Michael Gapen, moved forward his forecast for a first rate cut to July, from September, after last Friday’s weak May employment report of just 75,000 nonfarm payrolls. He expects the Fed to use more firepower than some economists do and expects it to start with a half percent rate cut, rather than a quarter point cut.


Gapen expects the Fed to modify its statement and change its forecast, which will be released after its meeting Wednesday afternoon. “I’m looking for a modest downgrade of the outlook that could be in their projections, as well as their description of business spending. … They have to acknowledge vulnerabilities have risen. I think they can highlight global growth and trade uncertainty, as two primary forces. I think they then get away from ‘patient’ and signal flexibility.”


In the Fed’s dot plot, there are no rate moves expected in 2019, and that is expected to change. Fed officials may also tweak their GDP forecasts. The median central tendency is currently 2.1%. The median inflation forecast was 1.8%, but that could move lower, with PCE inflation readings running at 1.6%.


Fed funds futures on Friday were signaling market expectations of about a 20% chance of a rate cut next week and about 80% for July. The Fed last raised interest rates in December, when it moved the range for fed funds futures to 2.25% to 2.50%.


After that meeting, the Fed changed its stance and added that it would be “patient,” pausing policy as it watched economic developments. Economists now expect the Fed to drop that word, signaling a willingness to move forward with rate cuts.


Chance for a cut next week? Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, said she believes the Fed should make a move next week and not wait until July. She said she became convinced Fed officials were ready to move forward with rate cuts after she attended a Chicago Fed conference earlier in the month. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other Fed officials made it clear the Fed would act to help the economy if it needed to.


Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida told CNBC at that conference that the Fed would act as needed. “We will put in policies that need to be in place to keep the economy, which is in a very good place right now, and it’s our job to keep it there,” he said in an interview.


“They were all pretty vocal about it. It was a major shift,” said Swonk. “Could they wait til July? Sure. My own view is if you’re going to do it, do it now because you can control the narrative. That’s important for the Fed to control the narrative.”


Swonk said the Fed could be sending a confusing message next week, if it doesn’t cut. “The dots are going to go down. They’ve got to remove ‘patient,’ they have to acknowledge a weaker labor market, weaker growth, all those things, and the dot plots go down. To me, that’s more confusion than clarity when you’re going to do it in six weeks anyway,” she said.


Jefferies economists are on the opposite end of the debate, and they do not have an interest rate cut in their forecast.


“If trade talks completely fall apart and we have a permanent negative impact on our trade relations with China, then we’d get a rate cut, but we don’t expect one otherwise,” said Tom Simons, Jefferies money market economist.


This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday’s close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY’S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday’s close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday’s close:

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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday’s close:

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Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

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Here are the upcoming IPO’s for this week:

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Friday’s Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Next Week’s Economic Indicators – 6/14/19

This week’s economic data came out to a slow and disappointing start as the JOLTS report showed fewer job openings in April than expected and was below the March number. That was the only release on Monday, but activity picked up on Tuesday with a strong NFIB Small Business Optimism report, continuing the second longest streak of monthly gains for the indicator (discussed in Tuesday’s Chart of the Day). Producer inflation also came out Tuesday, with a weaker headline print but improved core inflation. Wednesday’s CPI also saw some weakness missing expectations on both headline and core measures. Fortunately, we rounded out the week with a heavy slate on Friday with beats nearly across the board. Retail Sales impressed in addition to the previous month being revised up. Industrial production was also stronger than expected while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment improved to 112.5.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Next week quiets down with only 19 releases. June’s Empire Manufacturing index from the NY Fed kicks things off followed by homebuilder sentiment. Further in housing data, starts and permits will be out Tuesday morning. While starts are expected to rise, permits are forecasting a small downtick. Later in the week on Friday, existing home sales are forecasted to rise to 5.27 mm SAAR homes. On Wednesday, all eyes will be on the FOMC rate decision. Over the past couple of months, markets have increasingly been betting on the FOMC deciding to cut rates at this meeting or (more likely) in the near future. This event should provide some clarity into this situation. We will finish next week with the Leading Index on Thursday and preliminary June Markit PMIs on Friday.

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What Do Stocks Do After The First Rate Cut?

It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) will cut rates at the upcoming July meeting, with the potential for as many as three total rate cuts this year. This would be the first rate cut since the Fed started hiking rates in December 2015. Concerns over trade and the global economy have sparked much of this worry.

With the S&P 500 Index up nearly 15% for the year, what could this potential first rate cut mean for stocks? After all, the Fed cut rates in January 2001 and September 2007 right ahead of recessions and massive stock market corrections. Could another bear market and recession be headed our way if the Fed cuts rates soon?

“The previous two times the Fed cut rates for the first time in 2001 and 2007, we saw stocks eventually get cut in half,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But the reality is if you go back further in time, you can also see explosive rallies after that first cut.”

As our LPL Chart of the Day, “Not All Rate Cuts Are Created Equal”, shows, since 1984 there have been seven rate cuts that took place after at least one rate hike. The two most recent cuts were followed by poor performance over the next 12 months, but the other five cuts saw solid gains. In fact, the median return for the S&P 500 one year out has been a very impressive 13.9%, which suggests a potential rate cut over the coming months might not be as worrisome as many make it out to be.

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B.I.G. Tips – Retail Sales: Even Stronger Below the Surface

While it may not have looked like anything special based on the weaker than expected headline reading, there actually wasn’t much not to like about May’s Retail Sales report. In addition to being slightly better than expected after stripping out Autos and Gas, April’s report was revised significantly higher.

The table below shows monthly streaks of gains or losses for each of the sectors tracked in the Retail Sales report. Here we can see how broad and consistent the strength has been in Retail Sales after taking revisions into account. Five sectors have seen m/m growth for five straight months, and no group has seen more than one straight month of decline. Bars and Restaurants are one group that has seen sales growth for five consecutive months, and while it has yet to overtake Food and Beverage Stores in terms of its total share of sales, it’s getting close.

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June’s Boon – 5% DJIA Gain Already

Nearly two weeks ago we examined the history of June market performance after a down May following a strong January to April. That analysis suggested that this June could produce above average market gains. Thus far, the market has not disappointed. As of today’s close, DJIA is up 5.03% already this June. NASDAQ is second best, up 4.96%. S&P 500 and Russell 1000 are 4.89% higher. Russell 2000 is the laggard of the group, higher by a still respectable 3.96%. The true test for the market will arrive in the second half of the month as the end of the quarter nears. Historically, the second half of June has not been great for the market.

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NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Advance/Decline Lines Lagging

Typically at this time of the year, first half of June, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are often leading DJIA and S&P 500. Historically, the month of June has been kinder to technology and small-cap stocks than others. Sure, June has been quite robust so far, but it has been DJIA and S&P 500 leading the charge higher. Their strength is also confirmed by NYSE and S&P 500 cumulative Advance/Decline lines at new highs already. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 cumulative Advance/Decline lines are weaker have not exceeded the highs reached last year. At the least, NASDAQ’s Advance/Decline line likely needs improvement for the market to make any meaningful headway.

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Has the Market Entered Its Summer Sideways Phase?

After bouncing rather solidly off support at 2725 the S&P 500 has run in to some resistance at 2910. This looks like the beginning of the annual summertime sideways phase the market often experiences. Decent economic readings and a dovish Fed are likely to prop equities up some over the usually weaker summer months. While on the other had ongoing trade battles and other political and international skirmishes as well as lower oil, rates and growth are likely to keep a lid on stocks. This sets up the market for some range bound volatility between S&P 2700 and 2900 give or take a few points. Critical support remains at the 2580 near the February/April 2018 lows. A resolution to the China trade deal or some firming in the data could push us higher and deterioration on all fronts would likely push us lower. For now expect backing and filling over the next several months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

June Option Expiration Can Be Volatile

The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, DJIA has been up ten of the last sixteen years.

Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 25 of the last 29 years with an average decline of 1.09%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared slightly better during the week after over the same 29-year span, declining 0.73% and 0.23% respectively on average.

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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for June 14th, 2019

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 06.16.19

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-


  • $CGC
  • $ADBE
  • $KR
  • $ORCL
  • $KMX
  • $DRI
  • $LZB
  • $AOBC
  • $JBL
  • $CMC
  • $WGO
  • $RHT
  • $SFUN
  • $PSN
  • $HX
  • $SCS
  • $MEI
  • $CHKE
  • $KFY
  • $AMSWA
  • $ALYA
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK’S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK’S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!)

Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:


Monday 6.17.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY’S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 6.17.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY’S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

NONE.


Tuesday 6.18.19 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY’S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

NONE.

Tuesday 6.18.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY’S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.19.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY’S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.19.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY’S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.20.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY’S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.20.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY’S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.21.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY’S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.21.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY’S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

NONE.


Canopy Growth Corporation $41.18

Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 10:35 PM ET on Thursday, June 20, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.17 per share on revenue of $71.06 million. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 70.00% with revenue increasing by 293.75%. The stock has drifted lower by 15.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.2% below its 200 day moving average of $42.56. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company’s last earnings release. On Thursday, May 2, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,030 contracts of the $55.00 call expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 8.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 13.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


Adobe Inc. $274.28

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, June 18, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.78 per share on revenue of $2.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.83 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company’s guidance was for earnings of approximately $1.77 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.59% with revenue increasing by 22.99%. Short interest has increased by 16.5% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.5% above its 200 day moving average of $255.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company’s last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 28, 2019 there was some notable buying of 671 contracts of the $295.00 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


Kroger Co. $24.26

Kroger Co. (KR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:45 AM ET on Thursday, June 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.72 per share on revenue of $36.89 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.73 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.37% with revenue decreasing by 1.71%. Short interest has decreased by 8.7% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.5% below its 200 day moving average of $27.42. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company’s last earnings release. On Monday, June 10, 2019 there was some notable buying of 12,383 contracts of the $25.00 put expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


Oracle Corp. $53.28

Oracle Corp. (ORCL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, June 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.07 per share on revenue of $10.96 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.08 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 43% expecting an earnings beat The company’s guidance was for earnings of $1.05 to $1.09 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.18% with revenue decreasing by 2.59%. Short interest has increased by 7.2% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.8% above its 200 day moving average of $50.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company’s last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 21, 2019 there was some notable buying of 5,057 contracts of the $50.00 put expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


Carmax Inc $83.54

Carmax Inc (KMX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:35 AM ET on Friday, June 21, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.49 per share on revenue of $5.18 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.51 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 12.03% with revenue increasing by 8.08%. Short interest has increased by 20.7% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.5% above its 200 day moving average of $68.76. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company’s last earnings release. On Monday, June 10, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,024 contracts of the $82.50 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


Darden Restaurants, Inc. $119.68

Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.73 per share on revenue of $2.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 24.46% with revenue increasing by 4.96%. Short interest has increased by 10.5% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.4% above its 200 day moving average of $111.48. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company’s last earnings release. On Friday, June 14, 2019 there was some notable buying of 5,331 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


La-Z-Boy, Inc. $30.55

La-Z-Boy, Inc. (LZB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, June 18, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.65 per share on revenue of $468.20 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.64 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.52% with revenue increasing by 11.47%. Short interest has increased by 12.3% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.8% below its 200 day moving average of $31.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company’s last earnings release. On Friday, June 7, 2019 there was some notable buying of 504 contracts of the $30.00 put expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 12.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


American Outdoor Brands Corporation $9.03

American Outdoor Brands Corporation (AOBC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, June 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.17 per share on revenue of $168.35 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.18 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat The company’s guidance was for earnings of $0.11 to $0.15 per share on revenue of $162.00 million to $172.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 29.17% with revenue decreasing by 2.14%. Short interest has increased by 9.9% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 40.6% below its 200 day moving average of $15.20. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company’s last earnings release. On Friday, May 31, 2019 there was some notable buying of 613 contracts of the $9.00 put expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 14.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 14.6% move in recent quarters.

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Jabil Circuit, Inc. $26.47

Jabil Circuit, Inc. (JBL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, June 18, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $6.01 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.59 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat The company’s guidance was for earnings of $0.47 to $0.67 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 21.28% with revenue increasing by 10.54%. Short interest has increased by 0.6% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.4% below its 200 day moving average of $27.12. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company’s last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 7.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


Commercial Metals Company $15.12

Commercial Metals Company (CMC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, June 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.63 per share on revenue of $1.62 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.66 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 53.66% with revenue increasing by 34.50%. Short interest has increased by 61.8% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.8% below its 200 day moving average of $17.95. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company’s last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 4, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,036 contracts of the $16.00 call expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming week ahead?

 

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