China delivery times
Suppliers face the longest delays in more than two years pic.twitter.com/69RjoVIYVG
— Credit From Macro to Micro 🇺🇦 (@Credit_Junk) May 2, 2022
Beijing announces new rounds of mass testing May 3, 4, 5 despite low infections for latest #Covid wave- 400 out of 21mn residents. #China capital says to plan for “normalized” testing from Thu after May Day holiday of negative tests within 7 days for public places like subway. pic.twitter.com/hwfP7VOSva
— Eunice Yoon (@onlyyoontv) May 2, 2022
The hell with Ukraine, keep your eyes on China.
Windward says the lockdowns in China, which began in mid-March, have nearly doubled the number of container ships loitering off the country’s coast. As of April 19, Windward recorded 506 vessels awaiting berthing space at Chinese docks, up 195% from the 260 halted offshore in February.
I would suggest the possibility that China might already be engaging in an economic war that many Americans and Europeans don’t even realize is going on. This may be a beta test for a shut down of exports to the US and Europe, or it is an incremental shutdown that is meant to become permanent. The bottleneck on trade may also be a precursor to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Taiwan is actually more dependent and intertwined with China’s economy than many people know. China is the biggest buyer of Taiwan’s exports and those exports account for 10% of Taiwan’s GDP. Taiwan has hundreds of thousands of workers and businessmen that travel regularly to China to work, another economic factor that is now strained by lockdowns. Furthermore, Taiwan has multiple corporations that operate their factories on mainland China, all of which could be closed due to covid lockdowns.
All I’m saying is, if I was China planning on invading Taiwan in the near future, I might consider using covid as a cover for damaging their economy first and disrupting their export model. Communists see the population as a utility that can be sacrificed if necessary, and China is perfectly willing to cause short term suffering to their people if it means long term gains for the party. Beyond that, if I was going to engage in economic warfare with the west covertly, what better way than to tie up 20% of the world’s cargo ships and disrupt supply chains in the name of protecting the country form a “pandemic?”
The U.S. Military’s ability to procure needed supplies to arm and support itself in military conflicts is of great concern.
As Loren Thompson of Forbes points out: “The moment is fast approaching when America’s military will be unable to equip itself for modern warfare without relying on Chinese suppliers. So if the war is with China, there’s a good chance the U.S. military would be defeated.”
They will string us along until it becomes obvious, then they will start making moves out in open. Imagine your Walmart stores and your Amazon cart empty. USA will collapse without Asian imports. I find it hard to believe that a regime that will grind up people in tank treads locking down over omicron.
A parking lot of vessels are waiting outside China’s largest ports as the country experiences the biggest COVID-19 outbreak in two years continues to spread amid extended lockdowns in Shanghai.
Vessels carrying raw materials have increased over the last month as Shanghai’s 25 million people have been placed on lockdown, as new daily infections jumped to 26,000 on Sunday. The lockdown has shuttered factories, disrupted logistical networks, and reduced operational capacity at ports.
Shipping data via Bloomberg shows 222 bulk carriers waiting off Shanghai, China’s biggest port, 15% higher than a month ago. At the Port of Ningbo-Zhoushan, there were 134 carriers, or about a 1% increase versus last month, while further north at ports of Rizhao, Dongjiakou, and Qingdao recorded a 33% jump to 121 vessels. Adding to the congestion, nearly 200 container ships were sitting in Shanghai’s combined anchorage area with Ningbo, a 17% increase from a month ago.