10-year minus 2-year has gone negative again. This has been a reliable predictor of bad economic times in a 6 to 18 month horizon.

In addition to the two negative quarters we’ve already had, this is warning of additional pain down the road.

GDP fell 0.9% in the second quarter, the second straight decline and a strong recession signal

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  • Gross domestic product fell 0.9% at an annualized pace for the period, according to the advance estimate.
  • That follows a 1.6% decline in the first quarter and was worse than the Dow Jones estimate for a gain of 0.3%.
  • The drop came from a broad swath of factors, including decreases in inventories, residential and nonresidential investment, and government spending


h/t D_caffeine


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