Strong economy, Jay Powell? Or an economy on IV infusions of debt just to maintain 2% growth?
Global debt-to-GDP is 275%. Each 100% portion of the 275% total would cost 3%/yr in interest expense at Fed ‘normalized’ rates. 3% + 3% + 2.25% = (-8.25%) x GDP or an annual interest cost alone of over -8%. Compare that to global growth of 4% and you get a -4%xGDP contraction