4th Quarter GDP Forecasts Off To Weak Start

via mishtalk:

GDPNow and Nowcast Forecasts for 4th-quarter GDP are 1% and 0.7% respectively.

The 4th-quarter GDPNow and Nowcast forecasts start off on a weak footing, 1% or less.

The saving grace for GDPNow is its estimate of Real Final Sales, the true bottom-line measure of the economy. The rest is inventory adjustment which nets to zero over time.

Thus, GDPNow sees Change in Private Inventories (CIPI) as subtracting 0.5 percentage points from GDP.

The Nowcast report does not break out CIPI.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

 

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