6.8% is a rookie number. Real inflation is ~12% (1990s method) to ~15% (pre-1980s method). Inflation too high? Change the data!

by tyrranus

Very brief and abridged version:

Previously, the Consumer Price index (CPI) was calculated using a basket of goods to generate a Cost Of Goods Index (COGI). So, actual prices of actual real world items.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics changed their measurement methods and created a Cost Of Living Index (COLI). “The composite index weights costs based upon spending patterns identified in households with mid-management income, as measured by government surveys.” 1

The two main critics to the current method are John Williams, and David Ranson, both U.S. economists. Williams believes the original methodology is more accurate. ShadowStats is Williams’ website.

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Ranson believes that the current method is a lagging indicator and doesn’t reflect accurately the current inflation. He prefers to use a basket of commodities such as precious metals.

Most critics contend that the current method is a purposeful manipulation by the government to show lower inflation numbers.

1 www.investopedia.com/terms/a/accra-cost-of-living-index-coli.asp

The formula has been revised every few years throughout the history, so it’s not like “BOOM, done!” but the COLI first appeared around 1981.

www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2014/article/the-first-hundred-years-of-the-consumer-price-index.htm

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