If earnings growth falters from 10% to zero (a not-unlikely scenario), the fair value of the S&P 500 (at 14.3x fwd EPS of $220) would be 3146, or another 15% below last week’s close. /2
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) September 28, 2022
It doesn’t suggest a robust environment for equities, until the liquidity cycle turns up again. The key to the bullish view is for the liquidity cycle to turn up again, without earnings growth turning negative. /4 pic.twitter.com/OGuE6sW0bS
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) September 28, 2022
Third quarter earnings season will start in a few weeks, and growth estimates remain stable at 3%. We’ll see. /END pic.twitter.com/uGRvtlgNNo
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) September 28, 2022
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