Market Signals

Financial updates, market data, economic tracking, and blog posts.

$500 billion in private equity funds are stuck, private equity just posted its worst returns since 2011. CRE delinquencies doubled.

by

Commercial real estate is starting to bite the banks. Delinquencies on bank CRE loans have more than doubled since 2022, back to the highest since 2014. Offices sit half-empty and the loans keep coming due at much higher rates. It lands hardest on regional banks, which hold most… pic.twitter.com/SZYmbJiJYI — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) … Read more

US diesel hit a record $6.40/gallon (up 88% in 9 months). United Airlines announced flight cuts through 2027 due to jet fuel costs. Retail sales fell in July.

by

Fuel pain is real and in the receipts. BREAKING: US diesel prices officially rise to a new record of $6.40/gallon, now up over +88% in 9 months. Truck drivers are now paying $3.00 more per gallon for diesel than they were in January in the midst of peak demand season. The average gas price in … Read more

There is no such thing as one crash hedge

by

This is the problem with trying to protect a portfolio from “the next crash.” Look at the things investors are worried about right now. AI bubble bursts. Credit crunch. War. Oil shock. Debt default. Hyperinflation. Recession. Those aren’t the same crash. And the asset that protects you from one can get destroyed by another. Bonds … Read more

America may be keeping Chinese car brands out while importing the technology anyway

by

America can block Chinese car brands. It may have a harder time blocking Chinese auto technology. The weird part of the Chinese EV fight is that the Chinese badge is becoming less important. Waymo already uses China-built Zeekr vehicles in its U.S. robotaxi fleet. Those vehicles face tariffs of roughly 127.5%, yet Waymo still chose … Read more

Micron just found out what happens when a commodity gets priced like software

by

Micron’s latest numbers look almost broken. Revenue jumped from $9.3 billion to $41.46 billion in one year. Cost of revenue went from $5.79 billion to $6.40 billion. Revenue more than quadrupled. The cost line barely moved. That produced an 84.6% gross margin. Micron’s previous record in the 68 quarters on record was only 58.87%. Then … Read more

$3 trillion to build it. $1 trillion a year to run it. $40 billion in profit. ‘This could humiliate the largest companies in the world’

by

The AI buildout, top down: Build cost: ~$3TAnnual bill: ~$1TProfit to cover it: ~$40B Mike Taylor laid it out in a Real Conversation with Keith McCullough. Full note 👇 — Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) September 16, 2026 $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang says a 1 GW AI factory can cost ~$55B to build. He adds that “the rentals … Read more

The Fed is hiking to save Treasury demand, JPM is buying long end bonds

by

Everyone thinks the Fed is hiking mainly because of inflation. But there is another reason hiding inside the Treasury market (Treasury basis trade). The Treasury has been buying back longer-term bonds while issuing more short-term bills. That changes where the supply pressure sits. More bills hitting the market → bill prices come under pressure → … Read more

The Fed and Treasury are both trapped. Raising short term rates punishes the innocent man on Main Street. First the oil shock raises prices. Then tightening starts crushing demand

by

The bond market is beginning to withdraw the subsidy that made the entire post-2008 system possible. For fifteen years, the U.S. could fund enormous deficits, support high asset valuations, keep housing finance cheap, and roll debt at low rates because duration was treated almost like a public utility. Investors accepted tiny compensation for lending to … Read more

Trump wants to stop American fuel from leaving the country. That could make Americans pay more for fuel later

by

America can produce a lot of energy and still get crushed by a global fuel shortage. The U.S. doesn’t live inside an energy bubble. Oil is global. Refining is global. Diesel is global. Shipping is global. And now the war is attacking the infrastructure that connects all of it. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was the … Read more

This is a K-shaped consumer. The top is carrying the economy, and the tape rewards whoever sells to them. GDPNow says 5%. Companies are still jacking prices.

by

Growth can look hot and soup can still get more expensive in the same week. Atlanta Fed now predicts real GDP of 5.1% in Q3. Yeesh Being a net crude exporter is wild. pic.twitter.com/aFX1v8xmb9 — Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) September 16, 2026 Companies are done eating higher costs. Campbell's is raising prices on more … Read more

The Fed hiked. The long bond barely flinched. Hedge funds now hold a record $2 trillion-plus in Treasuries, more than four times the 2013 level.

by

Hedge funds now hold a record $2 trillion-plus in Treasuries, more than four times the 2013 level. Most of it rides on leverage. These are basis trades, tiny spreads amplified with borrowed money, the same setup that seized the bond market in March 2020. The world's safest… pic.twitter.com/xb2kfoBavw — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) September … Read more

AI is the Big Short. Not the Terminator.

by

Ed Zitron. F**k Anthropic. F**k OpenAI. Tech Giants are morons who KNOW NOTHING except how to manipulate AI to make money and to kill people. Economists Concerned the AI Bubble Is About to Blow With Wall Street on pins and needles amidst a wide-ranging discussion of AI safety, we may well be living through one … Read more

The Fed’s fool in the shower

by

via James E. Thorne: Milton Friedman’s “fool in the shower” is the right warning for the Federal Reserve. The fool turns the tap because the water feels cold, ignores the delay in the pipes, and keeps turning until the water becomes scalding. Monetary policy works the same way. Rates affect the economy with long and … Read more

Ground beef is now nearly 75% higher than it was during Covid, Americans start switching from beef to chicken

by

Tyson cuts its profit outlook again as cattle shortage worsens https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/tyson-foods-cuts-annual-sales-profit-forecasts-beef-pressure-weighs-2026-09-03/ Tyson now expects a $625 million to $775 million loss in its Beef segment for fiscal 2026, citing one of the most severe cattle shortages in U.S. history. U.S. expands beef import quota https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/08/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-further-ensures-affordable-beef-for-the-american-consumer/ The U.S. expanded the quota for imported lean beef trimmings … Read more

Global diesel shortage may last well into 2027. John Thune floats a diesel export ban.

by

We’re completely f**ked either way. The US is considering halting diesel exports. The US is the world’s largest diesel exporter… Russia, the 2nd largest, has already halted exports. A US export ban would send global diesel prices even higher and force countries like Japan to dump USTs to fund their domestic needs. In other words, … Read more

UK, Japan, and France: the worst sovereign bonds in the G7.

by

UK, Japan, and France: the worst sovereign bonds in the G7. You wanted more government and higher taxes. You got weaker growth, wider deficits, and a demolished balance sheet. Debt is not free. The bond market just repriced the bill. There is no such thing as free public… pic.twitter.com/iqaShZ8IRo — Daniel Lacalle Official Account (@dlacalle_IA) … Read more