Jim Cramer hyped the subprime bubble last time and now sells the AI bubble the same way. It costs more to insure Oracle’s debt today than it did the week Lehman collapsed.

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The five-year credit default swap is above 200 basis points. That is higher than anything it printed in 2008.

Nothing in the business broke. Revenue grew 21% last quarter. Cloud infrastructure revenue grew 93%. The order backlog hit $638 billion, up 363% in a year.

Free cash flow was negative $23.7 billion for the fiscal year.

Oracle raised $43 billion in debt to cover the gap. It plans roughly $40 billion more. Total debt sits near $130 billion. S&P cut the rating to BBB- in July, one notch above junk. Moody’s has a negative outlook.

A CDS spread is not a forecast. It is the price of protection, and protection got expensive.

The equity market looks at that backlog and sees the future.

The credit market looks at the same backlog and sees the bill.

Who‘s right?






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