Last summer, about 80 government officials and industry executives gathered in Washington to answer a key question: How would the US aluminum supply chain hold up in the event of a major global conflict?
The answer: potentially not well. That’s according to an analysis of the war simulation exercise, the details of which have not previously been reported. High-purity aluminum — an ultra-refined form used by the military for fighter jets and armored vehicles — emerged as a critical vulnerability. The metal is a niche, specialty material that accounts for a small share of the overall market but is crucial for defense and the aerospace industry.
The report noted that while China is the world’s dominant aluminum producer, the United Arab Emirates is a crucial supplier of the high-purity variety to the US. It provides about 90% of American imports of that metal, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter. Any hostilities that disrupt UAE aluminum production, then, threaten deliveries to the US. The report didn’t go into detail about how US aluminum supply would fare overall.
Seven months after the Pentagon war game, the US attacked Iran. Iranian drone strikes damaged major plants in the UAE and Bahrain in March, driving prices for the metal to a four-year high. While the UAE facility has since restarted, it will take months to return to full capacity. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, meanwhile, has made it harder to get aluminum shipments to global buyers.
An Aluminum crisis is roiling the auto industry. America’s top-selling vehicle, the Ford F-150, bears the brunt of metal-supply-chain woes.https://t.co/hTRlgSsQMD
— Laurentiu B . 🇪🇺 (@laurbjn) May 4, 2026
Aluminum prices spiked to four year highs right after the March strikes.
UAE plant restarted but full capacity is still months away.
AI data centers keep grabbing the cheap power that smelters need.
Congress and Aluminum Association push new rules for domestic capacity.
Defense contractors face longer lead times while munitions burn fast.