AI borrowing is getting so big it’s pushing Treasury yields higher

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AI companies have borrowed so much money this year that they’re pushing up interest rates for the entire economy. Nomura estimates tech borrowing alone now equals 25% of what the US Treasury issues in bonds, five times more than last year. Bank of America says the surge has added about 0.3 percentage points to the 10-year yield. Bond managers are selling Treasuries to buy AI corporate debt instead because it pays more.

My Take
AI companies are now competing with the US government for the same pool of lenders, and the lenders are picking the corporate bonds. Alphabet’s 30-year pays 6.4%. A Meta data center bond pays over 7.5%. At those rates, a 5.2% Treasury loses the fight for capital every time. That’s one of the reasons long-term rates have stayed so stubborn even as the Fed tries to bring them down.

JPMorgan expects $5.5 trillion in AI infrastructure spending through 2030, and most of it will be borrowed. That borrowing raises the cost of money for everyone, the government, your mortgage, small businesses trying to get a loan. The AI buildout has reached the scale where it moves rates for the whole economy, and most people paying higher borrowing costs have no idea that a data center arms race is one of the reasons why.

Hedgie🤗

AI investment is now competing directly with Treasury demand

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/ai-driving-treasury-yields-just-093000747.html

Bank of America estimates the surge in corporate debt issuance, including AI borrowing, has pushed the 10-year Treasury yield roughly 0.3 percentage points higher this year.

Nomura warns the amount of long-duration corporate debt coming to market could eventually force the Treasury to reconsider how much long-term debt it sells.

AI debt issuance explodes from $12.5B to $220B

https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/us-corporate-ai-debt-surge-tests-investor-limits-fatigue-emerges-2026-08-21/

AI-related corporate debt issuance has jumped from $12.5 billion last year to $220 billion this year.

And investors are starting to push back.

Tech spreads reached 89 basis points, wider than the overall investment-grade market. Amazon had to offer roughly 120 basis points over Treasuries for its $25 billion bond sale.

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