If they don’t hike rates: Bond yields will jump and stocks could drop 1.25% to 1.75%.
If they hike 25 basis points (normal expectations): Stocks could rise slightly (0.25% to 0.75%).
If they hike 25 basis points and hint at fewer future cuts: Stocks could rise 0.5% to 1% if investors like the tough stance on inflation.
If they warn about needing much higher rates (like 2022 again): It could kill the bull market and send stocks down 1% to 2%.
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