Americans are more miserable about the economy than they were during the 2008 financial crisis.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index just fell to 48.1, the second-lowest reading in the history of the survey. The survey has been running since 1952. CNN notes that sentiment is now below the levels recorded during the 2008 financial crisis, the 2001 recession and the COVID recession. Only May’s 44.8 reading was worse.

That is an extraordinary number considering that the unemployment rate remains relatively low and the stock market is near record highs.

But the deterioration isn’t coming from one political camp.

Consumer sentiment among Republicans has fallen 20% since January.

Among Democrats, it has fallen 13%.

University of Michigan survey director Joanne Hsu said interviews showed broad agreement across the political spectrum that the economic outlook has weakened since the beginning of the year.

Then there is the inflation problem.

Americans’ expected inflation rate for the next year jumped from 3.4% in February to 4% in August and then to 4.6% in September.

The University of Michigan pointed to two things behind the worsening mood: higher fuel costs and intensifying trade tensions. CNN also notes that September gasoline prices are the highest for that month on record, while diesel prices have reached record levels.

Now look at what is happening in the Treasury market.

The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to its highest level since June 2007, while the 30-year Treasury yield briefly moved above 5.5% on Friday for the first time in 22 years.

CNBC’s report on the Treasury move makes the historical comparison even harder to dismiss.

22V Research’s John Roque identified 16 occasions over the past five decades when the 10-year Treasury yield went through a rapid advance similar to the current move. In every case, some form of financial disruption followed. The scale varied widely, from the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank failure to the 1987 stock-market crash.

That is not a prediction that another financial crisis is coming.

It is a reason to pay attention to the speed of the bond-market move.

The federal government is also becoming more exposed to higher rates.

The Congressional Budget Office now estimates that a sustained one-percentage-point increase in interest rates above its baseline would push debt held by the public to 222% of GDP by 2056, 47 percentage points higher than its baseline projection.

So there are several different pressure points showing up at the same time.

Consumer sentiment: 48.1

One-year inflation expectations: 4.6%

30-year Treasury yield: above 5.5%

And the 10-year Treasury is at its highest level since 2007.

Meanwhile, the stock market is still near record highs.

That split is becoming harder to ignore.

The financial markets are still carrying the appearance of an economy that is holding together.

The consumer survey is showing something very different.

And now the bond market is demanding higher rates at the same time that Americans are already complaining about the cost of living.

That combination is what makes the latest numbers worth watching.