The headlines are pricing a housing depression. Consensus on Wall St is more rate hikes are coming!! “History has shown that financial calamities will occur when Treasury rates rise rapidly like this,”

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Read the room.

Housing looks broken. Mortgage rates near 7%. Builder confidence at a 1-year low. LEN missed and cut guidance. Buyers need lower rates. Owners are locked in.

Smart money is still buying the builders. Berkshire just pushed through 10% of Lennar after the miss and already bought Taylor Morrison outright.

That’s three calls at once:

1. The shortage is real. Rates killed demand, not the need for houses.

2. This rate spike is the pain, not the new normal. Homebuilders only work if the 30-year comes down.

3. The Fed just hiked and still said financial conditions are not restrictive. Housing is already screaming that they are.

The headlines are pricing a housing depression. Consensus on Wall St is more rate hikes are coming!!

The 13Fs are pricing a cycle trough and a policy reversal.

https://cnbc.com/2026/09/26/berkshire-adds-to-nearly-doubled-stake-in-slumping-homebuilder.html

History shows financial calamities occur when rates rise rapidly like this: ‘Something always breaks’

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is rising to levels not seen in years. But it’s not necessarily the outright level that’s most concerning for those on Wall Street, it’s the speed of the move.

When rates climb at such a rapid pace, history tells them something bad tends to happen.

The 10-year yield saw its most rapid one-day increase since April 7, 2025, on Wednesday, rising further on Thursday to top 5.17%, quite a move considering two weeks ago it was below 4.8% and at one point in August, it was below 4.6%.

“Something always breaks,” proclaimed a recent note from John Roque, head of technical analysis at 22V Research.

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