Goldilocks dump: spending jumps, jobs rebound, GDP revised up, Fed gauge cools

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ADP said private payrolls rose 90,000 in September.

August was revised to 36,000.

Street guesses sat near 68,000 to 75,000.

Education and health added 55,000.

Leisure added 22,000.

Manufacturing added 17,000.

Construction added 15,000.

Finance lost 16,000.

Professional services lost 11,000.

Base pay was up 3.2% year over year.

Gross pay was up 4.7%.

BEA said August personal spending jumped 0.9% in current dollars, or $190.8 billion.

Real spending rose 0.6%, the fastest month since March 2025.

Goods took $114.1 billion of that.

Services took $76.7 billion.

Income only rose 0.2%, or $66.6 billion.

The saving rate sat at 4.1%.

Saving itself was $990.2 billion.

Q2 GDP third estimate came in at 2.2% annualized.

The old print was 1.5%.

Q1 was revised to 2.5% from 2.1%.

Q2 consumer spending was marked to 3.8% from 3.4%.

PCE prices rose 0.3% in August.

Core PCE rose 0.2%.

Year over year, headline PCE was 3.4% against a 3.7% consensus.

Core was 3.0% against 3.3%.

Dow and S&P futures were up about 0.3% after the print.

Two-year yields slipped toward 4.86%.

LSEG had the October hike odds near 60% for a hold.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2026

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/feds-preferred-gauge-showed-core-inflation-at-3point0percent-in-august-much-lighter-than-expected.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/private-sector-jobs-rose-by-90000-in-september-better-than-expected-adp-reports.html

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