Are Trump and Zelensky trying create a massive global oil crisis?

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IEA puts Russia at about 6.5 million barrels a day of installed refining capacity, third after the U.S. and China. Ukrainian strikes have hit most of the major plants. Throughput dropped to 3.8 mb/d in June, lowest in more than 20 years and about 30 percent below the year before. Diesel output estimated down nearly 30 percent. Ukrainian General Staff has claimed higher percentages offline (over 40 percent at points). Independent tallies (IEA, S&P, Carnegie) cluster in the 20-30 percent range for capacity or throughput loss, with some plants hit repeatedly and secondary units taking months to repair. Only a handful of major refineries were still untouched by late August.

That is real damage to Russian product supply and has forced Moscow to restrict exports to protect the domestic market. It is not the destruction of Russia’s entire refining base, and it is not the main driver of the current global diesel tightness. The Iran war and Hormuz disruption remain the larger factor. Trump has used the Russian refinery strikes as the public reason for the diesel deal and the pressure on Zelensky. Zelensky’s stated position is that the strikes continue until Russia stops hitting Ukrainian energy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/interactive/2026/10/11/how-ukraine-uses-precision-drone-strikes-hobble-russian-oil-refineries/

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