RCP average from mid-September to early October: Talarico 48.1, Paxton 45.3. Recent Trafalgar (Oct 6-8) Talarico +3, YouGov +6. Kalshi and Polymarket priced Talarico around 63-64 percent as of Sunday. Claims that he was at Ohio’s Lindner Center of Hope during his flu absence were denied by the hospital, his campaign, and Talarico himself. Full call audio showed the purported employee had repeatedly denied any record before the clip that circulated. Talarico was publicly in Texas Friday and Saturday nights.
https://www.newsweek.com/james-talaricos-chances-in-texas-senate-race-after-absence-12552679
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/texas/talarico-vs-paxton
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