Prediction markets priced Democrat James Talarico at 71 percent to beat Republican Ken Paxton for the Texas Senate seat as of late Saturday, up from the mid 60s a week earlier and a record high for the Democrat. Paxton fell to about 29 percent. Polling averages show Talarico ahead by roughly 2 to 3 points among likely voters after early voting ended Friday with record turnout. Republicans have spent far more on ads while Talarico holds a large edge in direct fundraising. The seat has been held by Republicans for more than three decades. Election Day is Tuesday.
BREAKING: James Talarico soars to new high in Texas Senate election odds, just 3 days before the midterms.
70% chance Texas flips blue.
🔗 https://t.co/vbdAMoeJXK pic.twitter.com/D8Eg0usbJk
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 31, 2026
https://www.poliwave.com/us/tx/sen-fed
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