11.1% of GTA Private Mortgages Are Now 90+ Days Late!

CMHC Flags Private Mortgage Delinquencies Surging in the GTHA (11%+ 90-Day Arrears)

CMHC’s fall mortgage industry report shows a sharp rise in private-lender mortgage stress in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA), with 11.1% of private mortgage dollars (via mortgage investment entities, or MIEs) now 90+ days delinquent versus 3.82% in the rest of Canada, up from about 3% in the GTHA in late 2023. The script explains that forced-selling pressure may be concentrated in private and alternative lending rather than the big banks, highlighting risk factors such as nearly 70% interest-only balances, 29% of borrowers with debt service over 60% of income, and thinning equity as high-LTV uninsured balances rose from 1.6% (Q1 2024) to 9.2% (Q1 2026). It also cites CMHC forecasts of rising Ontario delinquencies through 2027, increasing non-mortgage missed payments and bankruptcy among mortgage holders, and notes GTA power-of-sale listings up 67% year over year, with an upcoming deeper report.

00:00 Private Delinquency Shock
00:39 Where Forced Sellers Hide
00:50 How Private Lending Works
01:40 Who Ends Up Private
03:00 Why Arrears Keep Rising
04:09 Risk Profile Breakdown
06:22 Refinance Trap Explained
07:04 CMHC Forecast Ontario
08:06 Credit Stress Signals
10:03 Power of Sale Update
10:55 Wrap Up and Question