Fewer marriages today mean fewer potential parents tomorrow.
Demographers warn China’s marriage decline will hit births in 2027
Independent demographer He Yafu says fewer marriages in 2026 point toward fewer births in 2027. Another demographer, Yi Fuxian of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told Voice of America that births could fall to around 7 million in 2027, down from 7.92 million in 2025. That is an expert projection, not an official forecast.
China’s third-quarter marriage registrations fall 15% year over year
The decline accelerated through the year. Registrations fell 6.2% in the first quarter, 8.7% in the second and 14.9% in the third. The third quarter recorded just 1.373 million marriages, the second-lowest third-quarter total on record.
https://www2.yicaiglobal.com/news/new-marriages-in-china-sink-to-18-year-low-in-first-nine-months
Divorce registrations barely move while marriages fall
China recorded 2.082 million divorces in the first nine months, compared with 2.077 million a year earlier. That is an increase of only 5,000, or about 0.2%, while marriages fell by more than 500,000. The widening gap explains the 45% ratio circulating online, but it should not be described as the divorce rate.
https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_34413135
Beijing calls for new measures to stabilize births
China’s State Council called for expanded support for marriage, childbirth, childcare and education, alongside changes to taxation, social security and housing policies. The government is trying to address the birth decline through financial support and family services, even as marriage registrations continue to fall.
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