Signs that we’re late cycle
-Mature Fed hiking cycle
-Commodity rally
-Tech/Financials leading
-Flatter yield curve
-Tight labor market
-Rising inflation
-Peaking PMI
-Surging consumer/NFIB confidence
-Tight credit spreads/low VIX
-High corporate leverage
-Low vacancy
twitter.com/HayekAndKeynes/status/1006673494275448834
Just comparing it to other cycles… But I would argue high debt levels mean higher sensitivity to rate hikes
The warning shots have been fired
-equity flash crash /VIX
-realized political risk
-EM carry trade wrecked
Credit spreads are likely to be next. US equities are likely to be the last to go
twitter.com/HayekAndKeynes/status/1006589418893955073
Progression is slow. But relentless.
We’ve passed peaked growth
Real wage growth is at 0% YoY. That’s laughable for all the rhetoric around how strong the economy is. #cpi #inflation pic.twitter.com/il1Dm1ZzZr
— Greg S. (@GS_CapSF) June 12, 2018
Gundlach want You To See Thesse Equity Bubbles pic.twitter.com/FKHZjHiTdx
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) June 12, 2018
h/t @HayekAndKeynes