viaΒ @Trinhnomics:
a) Leverage – China develeraged on the firm level but up gov’ level & growth slower so π»wins
b) FX – CNY weaker since last yr & worst in Asia in 1yrπ»πͺπ»
c) GDP -Retail sales π, investment π, exportsπ, & GDP flatππͺπ»
d) Politics – hard for me to comment π¬
e) Investment – FAI down & especially for private owned firms & industrial profits so π»πͺπ»
f) Geopolitics – US-China trade war escalated (yes, I called for this 1yr ago when people were focused on their feelings about Trump) so π»πͺπ»
g) Capital market – Included in A-share & weights rising + Bloomberg & Barclays Bond Index, which is a bigger deal; that said, EPFR data shows outflows & there’s price discovery recently due to Baoshang but been bad for small banks. Internalization of RMB π. I”ll give it toππͺπ»
h) Trade – export growth non-existent (ytd about 0.4% so not good) That said, others are worse like Korea. Imports contracting sharper so good for net trade but overall negative. Investment in sectors in manufacturing down so give this to π»πͺπ»as Made in China faces resistance.