According to Bloomberg, of the 1600 firms giving 1st half guidance, 40% predicted a drop in earnings. That E in your PE ratio is trending lower & “cheap” is relative.

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via Trinh Nguyen:


Worst sectors in H1:
a) Petroleum processing -56%(worsening)🥶
b)Other mining -44% (improving)
c) Non ferrous metals -38(improving)
d) Chemical fibers -25% (worsening)🥶
e) Metal products -15 ((worsening)🥶

f) Textile -26% (some stabilization) 🥶


Bottom line regarding industrial profits in H1:
a) Policy support is working to help stabilize some downstream sectors & that has both domestic & external implications (for example Australia doing well for exporting)
b) Headwinds strong for upstream & H2 not looking bright

Note that the strengths are SOFTENING (even essentials like food & medicine) & the only respite is that the SHARP CONTRACTION is STABILIZING so: China easing so far is putting is FLOOR on growth & not enough to engineer a V-shaped recovery & has implications REGIONALLY & GLOBALLY



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