What ever happened to “synchronized global growth?”
Nobody is suddenly looking for economic recessions in new corners of the globe. But amid a weakening in some global economic data relative to activity in the U.S., there’s no question that a handful of stocks that has been trading within with the “synchronized global growth” theme has begun underperforming.
Since many people were positioned for continued synchronized global growth into this year, the unwinding of that trade could be an important story in the coming months. Caterpillar’s performance this year is a great example of this, and its drop in recent months may be illustrative of a pickup in the rotation out of multinationals and into small-cap, domestic-focused names.
Caterpillar, along with other industrial, multinational names like Honeywell and 3M, has not acted well as of late. After rallying 70 percent, and another 8.5 percent in the first three weeks of the year, the stock is negative this year and trading firmly in correction territory from its January high.
I think the economy is getting ready to fall off the cliff pretty soon.