The real yield on U.S. 10-year debt fell to a record low as concerns mounted over the outlook for economic growth.
The rate, which strips out inflation, fell almost six basis points to minus -1.269%. The move was compounded by a lack of trading liquidity, with the 10-year breakeven rate — a market proxy for the average annual rate of consumer prices over the next decade — edging higher at 2.36%.
Still, it points to souring investor sentiment amid the rapid spread of the delta variant that threatens to derail the economic recovery. And it comes as investors piled into haven assets after a surprise hit to Germany’s business confidence.
That is much better than my chart that shows the REAL 10-year yield t -3.92% and the REAL Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage rate at -2.61. Based on headline CPI YoY.
Or at least record lows since 1975.
Economists are flocking to Jackson Hole, Wyoming for the KC Fed’s Economic Policy Symposium for the next three days. It is rumored that Fed Chair Jerome Powell (left), Fed Vice-chair Richard Clarida (center) and former Fed Chair Janet Yellen (right) will be in attendance.
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