Am I Too Bearish?

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by tptelly

I am wondering if someone can lay out the bullish case and/or dispute my current and personal view of the current market conditions as I see it. Not looking to push my opinions, rather to let me know am I being too bearish.

This is the bear case as I see it.

\- Baby boomer retirement and the resulting pension crisis and levels of debt must result in money printing.

\- Unknown effects of quantitative tightening; whereas quantitative easing resulted in the rise of asset prices, tightening might result in the opposite. Tens of billions of dollars every month destroyed by the FED.

\- FED hiking risk-free rate.

\- Trade tensions.

\- Peak(?) economic growth.

\- Ill-timed fiscal stimulus, during the late bull phase.

\- Excess multi-asset valuations inflated by quantitative easing.

\- Nearing the end of a 35 yr bond bull market.

\- Rising populism and anti-global, nationalistic sentiment.

\- Unknown effects of market weighted passive indexed funds (e.g. SPY).
Am I missing something? Are these ill-informed fears? What is the bull case?

The only bull case I can lay out is this.

\- This might be a is a secular bull market. Historical examples of secular bull markets include 1949-1966 (17 years); 1982-2000 (18 years; disregarding the crash of 87.)

\- The is a bullish consensus among 244 leading money managers, mutual fund managers, and hedge fund managers; especially on US equities.

70% favor U.S. stocks over other regions

Net overweight position in U.S. stocks is 21% and rising

25% bearish on global economic growth next year

\- Tax cuts.


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