Let’s get this straight, I have no fucking idea what will actually happen. But let’s look at the facts.
4/11 – AMC CEO buys 250,000 shares $2.60 each, totaling approximately $650,000.
4/19 – AMC raises 500 million in debt to boost cash – ” For now, the world’s largest movie theater said its current cash situation was sufficient to withstand a global suspension of operations until a partial potential reopening of its locations in July. As of March 31, AMC had a cash balance of $299.8 million, including borrowings in March 2020 of $215 million under its $225 million senior secured revolving credit facility due 2024 and the £89.2 million from its £100 million revolving credit facility due 2022.”
5/11 – Rumors of Amazon acquisition start circulating. Investors don’t realize that the rumor source, Daily Wire, made a mistake between AMC and AMCX (the cable channel). The inefficient market theory holds the stock up as investors literally don’t care.
5/12 – AMC’s fuckin chief human resource officer exercises an option to obtain 14,852 shares at $5.12, totaling approximately $76,000.
5/20 – HR officer averages her position down, straight out purchasing 16,667 shares at approximately $76,000.
5/29 – Analyst consensus is predicting a -42% downside.
6/3 – AMC publically announces possible going concern – ” it has “substantial doubts” about its ability to keep running its business for a “reasonable period of time” due to the COVID-19 impact.”
“The firm is asking investors to take a haircut ranging from about 47 to 51 cents on the dollar, depending on the bond issue and when investors turn in their securities. Investors would receive new 12% second-lien secured notes due 2026 that could pay interest in either cash or payment-in-kind through additional debt.
The early deadline, with more favorable terms for investors, is 5 p.m. in New York on June 16. The final deadline is 11:59 p.m. on June 30″
6/4 – AMC lenders instantly lawyer up, probably hinting that they will not take any kind of haircut.
My Thoughts: AMC earnings reports on 6/9. Obviously going to be bad… but that is not what I am pondering here. I have a feeling that AMC doesn’t have enough money to even re-open their theaters fully. Even if they do, it is a Movie theater. Their capacity will be cut significantly. As well, being the middle of summer and since everyone has been stuck inside for months, who the fuck wants to go see a movie. Travel, food, and other social stocks should be rallying in this, not a movie company. Have any of you even heard of any good movies coming out? Or for that matter, any movies that have begun film production for the next cycle of movies? Even further than that, will people ever look at movie theaters the same? Personally, I’m not a huge fan unless there is a specific movie (like the next up coming Matrix) that I want to see. I will wait for “DVD” release.
Put call ratio for every date from now to 7/2 are all well above 1.0. The market is bearish as fuck on AMC. The critical dates mentioned above are 6/16 and 6/30, both dates when lenders have to accept or decline the haircut.
What do you guys think? I’m gonna go full-blown retard on some date unless any of you have good counter-arguments.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.