As the stock market makes a comeback, the bond market flashes a ‘dire’ warning about the economy

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via CNBC:

  • The S&P 500 is up 1% since a massive sell-off to start last week. The broad index also remains about 3.8% from an intraday record reached on May 1.
  • Bond yields, however, have not been as resilient.
  • The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is trading at 2.4%, about 40 basis points below its 2019 high and within 10 basis points of its year-to-date low.

Stocks are weathering the latest bouts of increasing trade war fears, but the bond market is pointing to more trouble ahead.

The S&P 500 is up 1% since a massive sell-off to start last week. The broad index also remains about 3.8% from an intraday record reached on May 1. The major indexes rose again Tuesday morning.

Bond yields, however, have not been as resilient. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is trading at 2.4%, about 40 basis points below its 2019 high and within 10 basis points of its year-to-date low. Yields move inversely to prices.

Bonds are largely seen as a safer investment relative to stocks since they typically are not as volatile. Hence, money usually flows into bonds when investors see downside economic or political risks on the horizon.