“Automatic Pilot”: Mish Shedlock Attempts to Figure Out What the Fed Is Trying to Say

via mishtalk:

The market did not seem to like statements Jerome Powel made following the FOMC announcement.

Head Scratching

Head scratching? Really? No!

Here’s a better assessment from Batman.

Shut Up! Shut Up!

Powell was asked about the Fed’s balance sheet and quantitative tightening.

We thought carefully about how to normalize policy and came to the view that we would effectively have the balance sheet run off on automatic pilot and use monetary policy, rate policy to adjust to incoming data. I think that has been a good decision. I think that the runoff of the balance sheet has been smooth and has served its purpose and I don’t see us changing that. And I do think that we will continue to use monetary policy, which is to say rate policy as the active tool of monetary policy.

Automatic pilot, what a hoot.

Allegedly, the market reacted to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments in the Q&A following the FOMC announcement.

The reason I say “allegedly” is that I am not at all convinced the market would have reacted differently no matter what the Fed said.

Dot Thought Thickens

The dot plot always thickens.

The December meeting will show unanimous or near-unanimous opinion that the Fed is doing a brilliant job for the current year.

Conversations on Hikes

Dual Mandates

In the real world, bubbles eventually matter.

The problem is timing. It is very difficult to predict when things finally matter.

But when bubbles do matter, what the Fed then does or says is “Too Late To Matter.”

My assessment: A Fed-Sponsored Economic Bust is Coming no matter what the Fed says or does now.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock



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