by Dave
Here’s an example of some simple bitcoin metadata I’ve extracted – the raw number of transactions per time period. It turns out, tx counts roughly predict trend. If tx count is rising in the past, it points to rising bitcoin prices in the future, roughly speaking. Same is true for declining tx counts.
I’m guessing this is roughly equivalent to the google trends search for “bitcoin price”. No tx = nobody cares = no new money flowing in.
Do you see how a sharp drop-off in tx counts foreshadowed the top at 19k? And right now, tx counts are at levels last seen at BTC=6000-7500. Even though we’ve seen a bounce off the 11k level, those declining tx counts don’t bode well for where things go next.
