- Called the 17.2K bulltrap when folks were expecting to unload bags at 18-19K.
- Called the 9K low on the second selloff, when folks were clamoring for even more blood.Now we’re repeating the same rebound, retrace, and collapse cycle on this . This rally should get stuck under the old yellow triangle bottom, so no more than 14K -2.40% . Some will aim for a test of the channel top again (or even breakout to the upside), but bulls are weary of failure, and bears are in a hurry to get this trip south over with (who doesn’t love cheap coins?). Expect to see new triangles drawn during this rebound showing how we’re going to burst out the top (like the orange and yellow lines did before breaking down last time). Watch the white bear shoulder , as they provide major resistance (and breakout rally energy). The most recent rebound stalled at 12,800 on that white line (just like before).Pink arrows show rough sketch of the path to 8K. We’ll have Gartleys and all over again, fueling the dumps. If anything, now that the bulls have seen the potential for bloody waterfall dumps, I would expect this capitulation to come even faster than I’ve sketched. Market is getting used to hearing talk of 8K, and everyone will be jumping on board the dump train at the slightest whiff of bear.
I don’t usually have a good sense of precise timing for my sketches, and I’m already noticing an acceleration in the patterns being repeated. When folks have already heard the tune before, they’re quick to sing it again the second time. But if I’m anywhere close, we should be seeing the third selloff bottom around the second week of February. Notice the low points indicating the local bottoms of each selloff. Third arrow is an estimate based on the sketch timing.
Of course, this is a “bullish” three-drives pattern, where at the end we rally to around the 14K -2.40% S/R zone. Expect huge buying after we touch 8K, which should rocket us back up to the last triangle , and setting up an formation that will finally breach the top. (crypto traders looooove )