via Bloomberg:
The renewed rally in U.S. equities has left volatility markets showing little concern that the good times will end any time soon. Recession models beg to differ.
Wells Fargo’s model — which draws on the spread between three-month and 10-year Treasury yields as well as economic figures — shows chances of a U.S. recession within 12 months jumped in December and climbed to just above 40 percent in January.